Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model
| dc.contributor.author | Kearney, Marna | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-02-05T11:49:25Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-02-05T11:49:25Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2008 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2016-02-03T08:52:14Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyse the impact on the economy of taxes on CO2 emissions combined with the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios. A sales tax is used to model the impact of a CO2 tax. The mitigation scenarios modelled include structural shifts (for example switching from coal-fired electricity plants to nuclear power stations), changes in energy efficiency and changes in investment required. The extent of the structural shifts, changes in energy efficiency and investment required differs from scenario to scenario. The results for the mitigation scenarios indicate that the mitigation scenarios have a positive impact on GDP when investment is large. Although economic activity initially declines due to improved energy efficiency, it is followed by a period of economic expansion as lower prices increases output in most industries – this is especially the case when it is combined with higher investment. When CO2 taxes are levied the economic impact is again positive if this is combined with either tax relief or reinvestment of the additional tax revenue. The scenarios have varied impact on labour, in general employment for semi- and unskilled labour rise if investment is higher. In most scenarios the demand for energy declines, especially for coal and petroleum. However, the demand for electricity increases if investment rises significantly. When the mitigation scenarios is combined with a CO2 tax the results indicate that the CO2 tax is effective in reducing output of CO2 producing industries as it changes the relative price of the commodities produced by these industries. However, the sales tax is distortionary as it introduces price wedges in the economy while consumers may end up paying large portions of the tax. A CO2 tax may not be the most appropriate tool to achieve the desired results considering the economic development objectives of South Africa. However, when combined with the LTMS framework its negative impact is negated by higher investment and GDP growth. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.apacitation | Kearney, M. (2008). Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. <i>http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Kearney-Dynamic_CGE_on_LTMS.pdf</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16817 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.chicagocitation | Kearney, Marna "Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model." <i>http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Kearney-Dynamic_CGE_on_LTMS.pdf</i> (2008) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16817 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.citation | Kearney, M. (2008) Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Cape Town, Energy Research Centre. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.ris | TY - Journal Article AU - Kearney, Marna AB - A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyse the impact on the economy of taxes on CO2 emissions combined with the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios. A sales tax is used to model the impact of a CO2 tax. The mitigation scenarios modelled include structural shifts (for example switching from coal-fired electricity plants to nuclear power stations), changes in energy efficiency and changes in investment required. The extent of the structural shifts, changes in energy efficiency and investment required differs from scenario to scenario. The results for the mitigation scenarios indicate that the mitigation scenarios have a positive impact on GDP when investment is large. Although economic activity initially declines due to improved energy efficiency, it is followed by a period of economic expansion as lower prices increases output in most industries – this is especially the case when it is combined with higher investment. When CO2 taxes are levied the economic impact is again positive if this is combined with either tax relief or reinvestment of the additional tax revenue. The scenarios have varied impact on labour, in general employment for semi- and unskilled labour rise if investment is higher. In most scenarios the demand for energy declines, especially for coal and petroleum. However, the demand for electricity increases if investment rises significantly. When the mitigation scenarios is combined with a CO2 tax the results indicate that the CO2 tax is effective in reducing output of CO2 producing industries as it changes the relative price of the commodities produced by these industries. However, the sales tax is distortionary as it introduces price wedges in the economy while consumers may end up paying large portions of the tax. A CO2 tax may not be the most appropriate tool to achieve the desired results considering the economic development objectives of South Africa. However, when combined with the LTMS framework its negative impact is negated by higher investment and GDP growth. DA - 2008 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Kearney-Dynamic_CGE_on_LTMS.pdf LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2008 T1 - Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model TI - Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16817 ER - | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16817 | |
| dc.identifier.vancouvercitation | Kearney M. Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Kearney-Dynamic_CGE_on_LTMS.pdf. 2008; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16817. | en_ZA |
| dc.language | eng | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.department | Energy Research Centre | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.faculty | Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment | |
| dc.publisher.institution | University of Cape Town | |
| dc.rights | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en_ZA |
| dc.source | http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/08Kearney-Dynamic_CGE_on_LTMS.pdf | en_ZA |
| dc.subject.other | Long Term Mitigation Scenarios | |
| dc.subject.other | Sustainable development | |
| dc.subject.other | Climatic changes | |
| dc.subject.other | Carbon taxes | |
| dc.title | Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Journal Article | en_ZA |
| uct.subject.keywords | CO2 tax | en_ZA |
| uct.subject.keywords | computable general equilibrium model | en_ZA |
| uct.subject.keywords | economic impact | en_ZA |
| uct.subject.keywords | long term mitigation scenarios | en_ZA |
| uct.type.filetype | Text | |
| uct.type.filetype | Image | |
| uct.type.publication | Research | en_ZA |
| uct.type.resource | Article | en_ZA |