Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula

Simple item page
dc.contributor.advisorFebruary, Edmund Cen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorMoncrieff, Glenn Ren_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorSlingsby, Jasper Aen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorRogers, Annabelle Jen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-03T14:19:44Z
dc.date.available2017-10-03T14:19:44Z
dc.date.issued2017en_ZA
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the spatial probability of fire and how urban development may alter natural patterns is particularly important in areas where alternate ecosystem states occur at fine spatial scales. The Cape Peninsula, South Africa, is a one such region where fire-sensitive forest patches occur interspersed in a sea of fire-dependent fynbos. Fire is believed to be an important determinate of forest distribution, with absence or occurrence of fires potentially allowing patch contraction and expansion. In this thesis I use a series of computer models to determine the extent to which anthropogenic development and land transformation have altered the spatial variation in fire likelihood, or the 'burn probability', and its consequence for the distribution of forest on the Cape Peninsula. The two multi-model, fire behaviour simulation systems I use are FlamMap and FARSITE. FARSITE is a deterministic simulation package used globally for discrete event simulation. In an effort to assess the viability of using the FARSITE model for fire prediction in fynbos and the determinants of model accuracy, I predicted fire area for a historical fire on the Cape Peninsula using a variety of fuel models and wind conditions. Following this validation, FlamMap was used to simulate the burn probability of the Cape Peninsula under natural conditions – no urban development present – and transformed conditions – where urban areas mapped as non-burnable fuel models. I then determined changes in forest distribution documented over the last 50 years relative to changes in burn probability as a result of urbanisation. My results show that an increase in urbanisation on the Cape Flats has produced a significant urban shadow effect due to the interruption of natural fire catchments. This urban shadow effect has resulted in an overall increase in area of fire refuges on the Peninsula and expansion of forest, particularly on the more mesic eastern slopes at Kirstenbosch and Newlands. The results strongly support that urban-mediated changes to fire patterns are drivers of forest expansion in this region, and adds further evidence to support the significance of fire in determining biome boundaries in the fynbos.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationRogers, A. J. (2017). <i>Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Biological Sciences. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25511en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationRogers, Annabelle J. <i>"Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Biological Sciences, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25511en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationRogers, A. 2017. Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Rogers, Annabelle J AB - Understanding the spatial probability of fire and how urban development may alter natural patterns is particularly important in areas where alternate ecosystem states occur at fine spatial scales. The Cape Peninsula, South Africa, is a one such region where fire-sensitive forest patches occur interspersed in a sea of fire-dependent fynbos. Fire is believed to be an important determinate of forest distribution, with absence or occurrence of fires potentially allowing patch contraction and expansion. In this thesis I use a series of computer models to determine the extent to which anthropogenic development and land transformation have altered the spatial variation in fire likelihood, or the 'burn probability', and its consequence for the distribution of forest on the Cape Peninsula. The two multi-model, fire behaviour simulation systems I use are FlamMap and FARSITE. FARSITE is a deterministic simulation package used globally for discrete event simulation. In an effort to assess the viability of using the FARSITE model for fire prediction in fynbos and the determinants of model accuracy, I predicted fire area for a historical fire on the Cape Peninsula using a variety of fuel models and wind conditions. Following this validation, FlamMap was used to simulate the burn probability of the Cape Peninsula under natural conditions – no urban development present – and transformed conditions – where urban areas mapped as non-burnable fuel models. I then determined changes in forest distribution documented over the last 50 years relative to changes in burn probability as a result of urbanisation. My results show that an increase in urbanisation on the Cape Flats has produced a significant urban shadow effect due to the interruption of natural fire catchments. This urban shadow effect has resulted in an overall increase in area of fire refuges on the Peninsula and expansion of forest, particularly on the more mesic eastern slopes at Kirstenbosch and Newlands. The results strongly support that urban-mediated changes to fire patterns are drivers of forest expansion in this region, and adds further evidence to support the significance of fire in determining biome boundaries in the fynbos. DA - 2017 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2017 T1 - Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula TI - Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25511 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/25511
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationRogers AJ. Anthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsula. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Biological Sciences, 2017 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25511en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Biological Sciencesen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherBiological Sciencesen_ZA
dc.titleAnthropogenic modification of the natural fire landscape and its consequences for vegetation patterns on the Cape Peninsulaen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMScen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
thesis_sci_2017_rogers_annabelle_j.pdf
Size:
5.01 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Masters