Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms

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dc.contributor.authorGaunt, Charles Trevor
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T07:08:15Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T07:08:15Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractUntil recently, electricity utilities in mid- and low-latitude regions believed that solar storms had no (or only insignificant) effect on their power systems. Then it was noticed that the onset of damage in several large transformers, leading to their failure, correlated very closely with the Halloween storm of 2003. Since then engineers have started to appreciate that a very severe storm could have serious consequences outside the high-latitude regions. There are many uncertainties in predicting the effects of solar storms on electrical systems. The severity and time of arrival of a storm are difficult to model; so are the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) expected to flow in the power networks. Published information about the responses of different types of transformers to GICs is contradictory. Measurements of the abnormal power flows in networks during solar storms generally do not take into account the effects of the current distortion and unbalance, potentially giving misleading signals to the operators. The normal requirement for optimum system management, while allowing for the possibility of faults caused by lightning, birds and other causes, limits the capacity of system operators to respond to the threats of GICs, which are not assessed easily by the N − 1 reliability criterion. A utility’s response to the threat of damage by GICs depends on the expected frequency and magnitude of solar storms. Approaches to formulating a response are located in a system model incorporating space physics, network analysis, transformer engineering, network reliability and decision support and the benefits are identified. Approaches adopted in high-latitude regions might not be appropriate where fewer storms are expected to reach damaging levels. The risks of an extreme storm cannot be ignored, and understanding the response mechanisms suitable for low-latitude regions has the capacity to inform and reduce the uncertainty for power systems planners and operators worldwide.
dc.identifier.apacitationGaunt, C. T. (2014). Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms. <i>Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate</i>, 4(4), A01 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationGaunt, Charles Trevor "Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms." <i>Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate</i> 4, 4. (2014): A01 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationGaunt, C.T. 2014. Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms. <i>Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate.</i> 4(4):A01 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn2115-7251
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Gaunt, Charles Trevor AB - Until recently, electricity utilities in mid- and low-latitude regions believed that solar storms had no (or only insignificant) effect on their power systems. Then it was noticed that the onset of damage in several large transformers, leading to their failure, correlated very closely with the Halloween storm of 2003. Since then engineers have started to appreciate that a very severe storm could have serious consequences outside the high-latitude regions. There are many uncertainties in predicting the effects of solar storms on electrical systems. The severity and time of arrival of a storm are difficult to model; so are the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) expected to flow in the power networks. Published information about the responses of different types of transformers to GICs is contradictory. Measurements of the abnormal power flows in networks during solar storms generally do not take into account the effects of the current distortion and unbalance, potentially giving misleading signals to the operators. The normal requirement for optimum system management, while allowing for the possibility of faults caused by lightning, birds and other causes, limits the capacity of system operators to respond to the threats of GICs, which are not assessed easily by the N − 1 reliability criterion. A utility’s response to the threat of damage by GICs depends on the expected frequency and magnitude of solar storms. Approaches to formulating a response are located in a system model incorporating space physics, network analysis, transformer engineering, network reliability and decision support and the benefits are identified. Approaches adopted in high-latitude regions might not be appropriate where fewer storms are expected to reach damaging levels. The risks of an extreme storm cannot be ignored, and understanding the response mechanisms suitable for low-latitude regions has the capacity to inform and reduce the uncertainty for power systems planners and operators worldwide. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 4 J1 - Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2014 SM - 2115-7251 T1 - Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms TI - Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationGaunt CT. Reducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate. 2014;4(4):A01 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34536.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Electrical Engineering
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.sourceJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate
dc.source.journalissue4
dc.source.journalvolume4
dc.source.paginationA01 - 177
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2013058
dc.subject.othergeomagnetically induced currents
dc.subject.otherpower systems
dc.subject.otherreliability
dc.subject.othertransformers
dc.subject.othercondition monitoring
dc.titleReducing uncertainty – responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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