Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins

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dc.contributor.authorTorres, Leigh Gen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSutton, Philip J Hen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorThompson, David Ren_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDelord, Karineen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWeimerskirch, Henrien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSagar, Paul Men_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSommer, Ericaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDilley, Ben Jen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorRyan, Peter Gen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPhillips, Richard Aen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-16T04:11:02Z
dc.date.available2015-11-16T04:11:02Z
dc.date.issued2015en_ZA
dc.description.abstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea , to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate potential distribution patterns relative to large-scale climatic and oceanographic conditions, knowledge of local habitat availability and preferences is necessary to understand and successfully predict region-specific realized distribution patterns.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationTorres, L. G., Sutton, P. J. H., Thompson, D. R., Delord, K., Weimerskirch, H., Sagar, P. M., ... Phillips, R. A. (2015). Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins. <i>PLoS One</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15021en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationTorres, Leigh G, Philip J H Sutton, David R Thompson, Karine Delord, Henri Weimerskirch, Paul M Sagar, Erica Sommer, Ben J Dilley, Peter G Ryan, and Richard A Phillips "Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins." <i>PLoS One</i> (2015) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15021en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationTorres, L. G., Sutton, P. J., Thompson, D. R., Delord, K., Weimerskirch, H., Sagar, P. M., ... & Phillips, R. A. (2015). Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins. PloS one, 10(3), e0120014. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0120014en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Torres, Leigh G AU - Sutton, Philip J H AU - Thompson, David R AU - Delord, Karine AU - Weimerskirch, Henri AU - Sagar, Paul M AU - Sommer, Erica AU - Dilley, Ben J AU - Ryan, Peter G AU - Phillips, Richard A AB - Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea , to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate potential distribution patterns relative to large-scale climatic and oceanographic conditions, knowledge of local habitat availability and preferences is necessary to understand and successfully predict region-specific realized distribution patterns. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0120014 DP - University of Cape Town J1 - PLoS One LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins TI - Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15021 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/15021
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120014
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationTorres LG, Sutton PJH, Thompson DR, Delord K, Weimerskirch H, Sagar PM, et al. Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins. PLoS One. 2015; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15021.en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentPercy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithologyen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the terms of the <a href=en_ZA
dc.rights.holder© 2015 Torres et alen_ZA
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_ZA
dc.sourcePLoS Oneen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosoneen_ZA
dc.subject.otherPetrelsen_ZA
dc.subject.otherHabitatsen_ZA
dc.subject.otherExtrapolationen_ZA
dc.subject.otherOceanographyen_ZA
dc.subject.otherInterpolationen_ZA
dc.subject.otherConservation scienceen_ZA
dc.subject.otherSouthern Hemisphereen_ZA
dc.titlePoor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basinsen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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