Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland

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dc.contributor.authorReason, C J C
dc.contributor.authorKeibel, A
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T07:22:56Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T07:22:56Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.description.abstractFebruary-March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). Less than 5% of southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones actually make landfall on the east coast of southern Africa and even fewer significantly penetrate into the interior, because of the relatively dry 1-1.5-km-high interior plateau that covers most of the region. It is argued that the precursor synoptic conditions together with large-scale circulation and SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with a strengthening La Niña were highly favorable for this unusual evolution and track of Eline. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region.
dc.identifier.apacitationReason, C. J. C., & Keibel, A. (2004). Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland. <i>Weather and Forecasting</i>, 19(5), 789 - 805. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationReason, C J C, and A Keibel "Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland." <i>Weather and Forecasting</i> 19, 5. (2004): 789 - 805. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationReason, C.J.C. & Keibel, A. 2004. Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland. <i>Weather and Forecasting.</i> 19(5):789 - 805. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0882-8156
dc.identifier.issn1520-0434
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Reason, C J C AU - Keibel, A AB - February-March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). Less than 5% of southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones actually make landfall on the east coast of southern Africa and even fewer significantly penetrate into the interior, because of the relatively dry 1-1.5-km-high interior plateau that covers most of the region. It is argued that the precursor synoptic conditions together with large-scale circulation and SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with a strengthening La Niña were highly favorable for this unusual evolution and track of Eline. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region. DA - 2004 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 5 J1 - Weather and Forecasting LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2004 SM - 0882-8156 SM - 1520-0434 T1 - Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland TI - Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationReason CJC, Keibel A. Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland. Weather and Forecasting. 2004;19(5):789 - 805. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35031.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Oceanography
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.sourceWeather and Forecasting
dc.source.journalissue5
dc.source.journalvolume19
dc.source.pagination789 - 805
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2
dc.subject.otherForecast skill
dc.subject.otherPredictability
dc.subject.otherSevere weather warning
dc.subject.otherNumerical forecast
dc.subject.otherWeather forecast
dc.subject.otherOcean atmosphere interaction
dc.subject.otherSouthern oscillation
dc.subject.otherEl Niño
dc.subject.otherLa Niña
dc.subject.otherTeleconnection
dc.subject.otherSynoptic scale
dc.subject.otherMeteorological chart
dc.subject.otherTrajectory
dc.subject.otherTropical cyclone
dc.subject.otherFlood
dc.subject.otherNatural disaster
dc.subject.otherSea surface temperature
dc.subject.otherSouth Africa
dc.subject.otherZimbabwe
dc.subject.otherMozambique
dc.subject.otherNamibia
dc.subject.otherIndian Ocean
dc.titleTropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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