Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response

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dc.contributor.authorShretta, Rima
dc.contributor.authorSilal, Sheetal P
dc.contributor.authorMalm, Keziah
dc.contributor.authorMohammed, Wahjib
dc.contributor.authorNarh, Joel
dc.contributor.authorPiccinini, Danielle
dc.contributor.authorBertram, Kathryn
dc.contributor.authorRockwood, Jessica
dc.contributor.authorLynch, Matt
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-11T15:09:31Z
dc.date.available2020-06-11T15:09:31Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-01
dc.date.updated2020-06-07T03:46:13Z
dc.description.abstractBackground Ghana has made impressive progress against malaria, decreasing mortality and morbidity by over 50% between 2005 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, due to increased financial commitment from government and donors. Total resources for malaria increased from less than USD 25 million in 2006 to over USD 100 million in 2011. However, the country still faces a high burden of disease and is at risk of declining external financing due to its strong economic growth and the consequential donor requirements for increased government contributions. The resulting financial gap will need to be met domestically. The purpose of this study was to provide economic evidence of the potential risks of withdrawing financing to shape an advocacy strategy for resource mobilization. Methods A compartmental transmission model was developed to estimate the impact of a range of malaria interventions on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030. The model projected scenarios of common interventions that allowed the attainment of elimination and those that predicted transmission if interventions were withheld. The outputs of this model were used to generate costs and economic benefits of each option. Results Elimination was predicted using the package of interventions outlined in the national strategy, particularly increased net usage and improved case management. Malaria elimination in Ghana is predicted to cost USD 961 million between 2020 and 2029. Compared to the baseline, elimination is estimated to prevent 85.5 million cases, save 4468 lives, and avert USD 2.2 billion in health system expenditures. The economic gain was estimated at USD 32 billion in reduced health system expenditure, increased household prosperity and productivity gains. Through malaria elimination, Ghana can expect to see a 32-fold return on their investment. Reducing interventions, predicted an additional 38.2 clinical cases, 2500 deaths and additional economic losses of USD 14.1 billion. Conclusions Malaria elimination provides robust epidemiological and economic benefits, however, sustained financing is need to accelerate the gains in Ghana. Although government financing has increased in the past decade, the amount is less than 25% of the total malaria financing. The evidence generated by this study can be used to develop a robust domestic strategy to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana.en_US
dc.identifier.apacitationShretta, R., Silal, S. P., Malm, K., Mohammed, W., Narh, J., Piccinini, D., ... Lynch, M. (2020). Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response. <i>Malaria Journal</i>, 19(1), 196. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationShretta, Rima, Sheetal P Silal, Keziah Malm, Wahjib Mohammed, Joel Narh, Danielle Piccinini, Kathryn Bertram, Jessica Rockwood, and Matt Lynch "Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response." <i>Malaria Journal</i> 19, 1. (2020): 196. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationShretta, R., Silal, S.P., Malm, K., Mohammed, W., Narh, J., Piccinini, D., Bertram, K. & Rockwood, J. et al. 2020. Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response. <i>Malaria Journal.</i> 19(1):196. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Shretta, Rima AU - Silal, Sheetal P AU - Malm, Keziah AU - Mohammed, Wahjib AU - Narh, Joel AU - Piccinini, Danielle AU - Bertram, Kathryn AU - Rockwood, Jessica AU - Lynch, Matt AB - Background Ghana has made impressive progress against malaria, decreasing mortality and morbidity by over 50% between 2005 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, due to increased financial commitment from government and donors. Total resources for malaria increased from less than USD 25 million in 2006 to over USD 100 million in 2011. However, the country still faces a high burden of disease and is at risk of declining external financing due to its strong economic growth and the consequential donor requirements for increased government contributions. The resulting financial gap will need to be met domestically. The purpose of this study was to provide economic evidence of the potential risks of withdrawing financing to shape an advocacy strategy for resource mobilization. Methods A compartmental transmission model was developed to estimate the impact of a range of malaria interventions on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030. The model projected scenarios of common interventions that allowed the attainment of elimination and those that predicted transmission if interventions were withheld. The outputs of this model were used to generate costs and economic benefits of each option. Results Elimination was predicted using the package of interventions outlined in the national strategy, particularly increased net usage and improved case management. Malaria elimination in Ghana is predicted to cost USD 961 million between 2020 and 2029. Compared to the baseline, elimination is estimated to prevent 85.5 million cases, save 4468 lives, and avert USD 2.2 billion in health system expenditures. The economic gain was estimated at USD 32 billion in reduced health system expenditure, increased household prosperity and productivity gains. Through malaria elimination, Ghana can expect to see a 32-fold return on their investment. Reducing interventions, predicted an additional 38.2 clinical cases, 2500 deaths and additional economic losses of USD 14.1 billion. Conclusions Malaria elimination provides robust epidemiological and economic benefits, however, sustained financing is need to accelerate the gains in Ghana. Although government financing has increased in the past decade, the amount is less than 25% of the total malaria financing. The evidence generated by this study can be used to develop a robust domestic strategy to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana. DA - 2020-06-01 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 1 J1 - Malaria Journal KW - Malaria KW - Ghana KW - Investment case KW - Costs KW - Benefits KW - Economic KW - Funding KW - Financing LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2020 T1 - Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response TI - Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03267-9
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationShretta R, Silal SP, Malm K, Mohammed W, Narh J, Piccinini D, et al. Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response. Malaria Journal. 2020;19(1):196. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32063.en_ZA
dc.language.rfc3066en
dc.rights.holderThe Author(s)
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.sourceMalaria Journalen_US
dc.source.journalissue1en_US
dc.source.journalvolume19en_US
dc.source.pagination196en_US
dc.source.urihttps://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/
dc.subjectMalariaen_US
dc.subjectGhanaen_US
dc.subjectInvestment caseen_US
dc.subjectCostsen_US
dc.subjectBenefitsen_US
dc.subjectEconomicen_US
dc.subjectFundingen_US
dc.subjectFinancingen_US
dc.titleEstimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria responseen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
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