Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean

Simple item page
dc.contributor.advisorLamont, Tarron
dc.contributor.advisorAnsorge, Isabel
dc.contributor.advisorRouault, Mathieu
dc.contributor.authorShangheta, Anna Liisa Penelao Tulimevava
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-16T03:02:43Z
dc.date.available2022-03-16T03:02:43Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.date.updated2022-03-16T01:38:20Z
dc.description.abstractA warming Southern Ocean (SO), due to climate change and global warming, has many implications on the sub-Antarctic Islands in the SO. Due to the distance away from continental land these islands experience an oceanic climate, making them the perfect sentinels to climate change in this sector of the Southern Ocean. Studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) correspond in time to a southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) particularly the Subantarctic Front (SAF). While other studies have shown distinctive trends in ocean and atmospheric parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, sunshine, rainfall, air sea level pressure and wind speed and direction from the 1950s to the early 2000s, the aim of this study is to update those studies to a more recent time with updated time series. Among the changes recorded is an increase in SST and air temperature, which is a strong indication of the changing local and global climate. Using linear regression, this study showed that the rates of increase from 1949 to 2018 of the SST (0.022°C/year), minimum (0.0072°C/year) and maximum air temperatures (0.016°C/year) are smaller than estimated in previous studies. The increasing trend in SST and air temperature reported by previous papers has actually stopped since the 2000s, which reduces the formerly reported trend (0.028°C/year). Although the in-situ measured SST data had gaps, a good correlation with in-situ SST and large scale satellite derived Reynolds SST help to corroborate the covariation between SST, in-situ SST and air temperature giving weight to the hypothesis of a reversal of the positive temperature trends reported by others. The change in decadal variability a decrease in air pressure of 4 hPa since the late 1990s to late 2000s, which coincided with a decrease in minimum and maximum air temperatures of 1°C over the same period; decrease in westerly wind and an increase in the northerly component of the wind, which would explain the decrease of inshore sea surface temperature a while thereafter. This study further corroborates previous findings of a continued decrease in rainfall, while the sunshine has largely remained the same. The seasonal cycle of the air pressure is significantly associated with that of rainfall, showing that the bimodal high air pressure signature resulting from the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO) is associated with a decrease in rainfall. The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was significantly yet weakly correlated with the SST (0.24), rainfall (-0.25) and air pressure (0.16), indicating that it does have an impact at the PEIs but not as strong as previously speculated. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has very weak and insignificant relationships with the parameters examined except for a weak relationship with in-situ SST, sunshine and air pressure. These new insights, especially at the decadal timescale, could further our insight on how subAntarctic islands have responded to climatic changes.
dc.identifier.apacitationShangheta, A. L. P. T. (2021). <i>Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean</i>. (). ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationShangheta, Anna Liisa Penelao Tulimevava. <i>"Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean."</i> ., ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationShangheta, A.L.P.T. 2021. Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean. . ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Master Thesis AU - Shangheta, Anna Liisa Penelao Tulimevava AB - A warming Southern Ocean (SO), due to climate change and global warming, has many implications on the sub-Antarctic Islands in the SO. Due to the distance away from continental land these islands experience an oceanic climate, making them the perfect sentinels to climate change in this sector of the Southern Ocean. Studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) correspond in time to a southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) particularly the Subantarctic Front (SAF). While other studies have shown distinctive trends in ocean and atmospheric parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, sunshine, rainfall, air sea level pressure and wind speed and direction from the 1950s to the early 2000s, the aim of this study is to update those studies to a more recent time with updated time series. Among the changes recorded is an increase in SST and air temperature, which is a strong indication of the changing local and global climate. Using linear regression, this study showed that the rates of increase from 1949 to 2018 of the SST (0.022°C/year), minimum (0.0072°C/year) and maximum air temperatures (0.016°C/year) are smaller than estimated in previous studies. The increasing trend in SST and air temperature reported by previous papers has actually stopped since the 2000s, which reduces the formerly reported trend (0.028°C/year). Although the in-situ measured SST data had gaps, a good correlation with in-situ SST and large scale satellite derived Reynolds SST help to corroborate the covariation between SST, in-situ SST and air temperature giving weight to the hypothesis of a reversal of the positive temperature trends reported by others. The change in decadal variability a decrease in air pressure of 4 hPa since the late 1990s to late 2000s, which coincided with a decrease in minimum and maximum air temperatures of 1°C over the same period; decrease in westerly wind and an increase in the northerly component of the wind, which would explain the decrease of inshore sea surface temperature a while thereafter. This study further corroborates previous findings of a continued decrease in rainfall, while the sunshine has largely remained the same. The seasonal cycle of the air pressure is significantly associated with that of rainfall, showing that the bimodal high air pressure signature resulting from the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO) is associated with a decrease in rainfall. The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was significantly yet weakly correlated with the SST (0.24), rainfall (-0.25) and air pressure (0.16), indicating that it does have an impact at the PEIs but not as strong as previously speculated. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has very weak and insignificant relationships with the parameters examined except for a weak relationship with in-situ SST, sunshine and air pressure. These new insights, especially at the decadal timescale, could further our insight on how subAntarctic islands have responded to climatic changes. DA - 2021_ DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Prince Edward Islands KW - sub-Antarctic Islands KW - Climatic changes KW - decadal variability LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2021 T1 - Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean TI - Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationShangheta ALPT. Long-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean. []. ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography, 2021 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/36129en_ZA
dc.language.rfc3066eng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Oceanography
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.subjectPrince Edward Islands
dc.subjectsub-Antarctic Islands
dc.subjectClimatic changes
dc.subjectdecadal variability
dc.titleLong-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationlevelMSc
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
thesis_sci_2021_shangheta anna liisa penelao tulimevava.pdf
Size:
3.81 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
0 B
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Masters