S24-1 Progress with the statistical analysis of primary molt

Underhill, Les G; Serra, Lorenzo; Brandão, Anabela

S24-1 Progress with the statistical analysis of primary molt

Journal Article

2006

Journal Title

Current Zoology

Link to Journal

http://cz.oxfordjournals.org/

Publisher

Current Zoology

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

License

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Abstract

This paper considers two extensions to the statistical analysis of primary molt. The first extension relates to the development of statistical models that allow the simultaneous estimation of molt parameters for diverse groups of birds. Parameter estimation uses the method of maximum likelihood and the EM algorithm. The likelihood ratio criterion is applied in statistical hypothesis-testing for equality of sets of parameters, and the Akaike Information Criterion is used to guide model selection. This extension is illustrated using primary molt data for willow warblers (Pylloscopus trochilus) over 11 years. The second extension is the realization that important insights into the way that primary molt is incorporated into the annual cycle of birds can be obtained by investigating the parameters of molt of individual primary feathers. This extension is illustrated using six data sets from four species of waders, Charadriiformes.