Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs

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dc.contributor.authorde Moor, Carryn
dc.contributor.authorCoetzee, Janet
dc.contributor.authorButterworth, Doug S
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-11T12:37:23Z
dc.date.available2020-02-11T12:37:23Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThe analyses undertaken to provide a scientific recommendation for the 2019 sardine TAC and TAB, under Exceptional Circumstances were subject to a number of more serious uncertainties than would normally apply. Given the critically low level of the sardine resource, care should be taken to either recommend catch limits that are robust to these uncertainties, or to undertake further research to minimise such uncertainty. One key uncertainty is how survey (and commercial) length frequencies should be weighted given that concerns frequently arise that one or other (or both) may be unrepresentative of the population length structure. Future recruitment to this short‐lived resource is another key uncertainty. While the primary uncertainty surrounding the weight‐at‐length has been alleviated, and the growth curve adjusted, some uncertainty surrounding the choice of growth curve remains. Finally, under Exceptional Circumstances, the decision‐making process involves a greater degree of subjectivity. While the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group aimed at making this as objective as possible to recommend 2019 sardine catch limits, that approach could possibly be further improved. This document is aimed at providing current research and analyses to assist discussion on the key questions to the panel at the MARAM International Stock Assessment Workshop.en_US
dc.identifier.apacitationde Moor, C., Coetzee, J., & Butterworth, D. (2019). <i>Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs</i> ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31035en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationde Moor, Carryn, Janet Coetzee, and Doug Butterworth <i>Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs.</i> ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31035en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationde Moor, C., Coetzee, J., Butterworth, D. 2019. Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Report AU - de Moor, Carryn AU - Coetzee, Janet AU - Butterworth, Doug AB - The analyses undertaken to provide a scientific recommendation for the 2019 sardine TAC and TAB, under Exceptional Circumstances were subject to a number of more serious uncertainties than would normally apply. Given the critically low level of the sardine resource, care should be taken to either recommend catch limits that are robust to these uncertainties, or to undertake further research to minimise such uncertainty. One key uncertainty is how survey (and commercial) length frequencies should be weighted given that concerns frequently arise that one or other (or both) may be unrepresentative of the population length structure. Future recruitment to this short‐lived resource is another key uncertainty. While the primary uncertainty surrounding the weight‐at‐length has been alleviated, and the growth curve adjusted, some uncertainty surrounding the choice of growth curve remains. Finally, under Exceptional Circumstances, the decision‐making process involves a greater degree of subjectivity. While the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group aimed at making this as objective as possible to recommend 2019 sardine catch limits, that approach could possibly be further improved. This document is aimed at providing current research and analyses to assist discussion on the key questions to the panel at the MARAM International Stock Assessment Workshop. DA - 2019 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2019 T1 - Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs TI - Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31035 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/31035
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationde Moor C, Coetzee J, Butterworth D. Uncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABs. 2019 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31035en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematicsen_US
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Scienceen_US
dc.titleUncertainties and associated concerns relating to using short-term projections to advise on the 2020 sardine TAC and TABsen_US
dc.typeReporten_US
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