Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

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dc.contributor.authorCoughlan de Perez, Erin
dc.contributor.authorvan den Hurk, Bart
dc.contributor.authorvan Aalst, Maarten K
dc.contributor.authorAmuron, Irene
dc.contributor.authorBamanya, Deus
dc.contributor.authorHauser, Tristan
dc.contributor.authorJongma, Brenden
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Ana
dc.contributor.authorMason, Simon
dc.contributor.authorMendler de Suarez, Janot
dc.contributor.authorPappenberger, Florian
dc.contributor.authorRueth, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorStephens, Elisabeth
dc.contributor.authorSuarez, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorWagemaker, Jurjen
dc.contributor.authorZsoter, Ervin
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T07:04:14Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T07:04:14Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractToo often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new Forecast-based Financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society Forecast-based Financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards, and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.
dc.identifier.apacitationCoughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., ... Zsoter, E. (2016). Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</i>, 20(9), 3549 - 3560. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationCoughlan de Perez, Erin, Bart van den Hurk, Maarten K van Aalst, Irene Amuron, Deus Bamanya, Tristan Hauser, Brenden Jongma, et al "Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action." <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</i> 20, 9. (2016): 3549 - 3560. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationCoughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M.K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongma, B. & Lopez, A. et al. 2016. Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. <i>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions.</i> 20(9):3549 - 3560. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1812-2108
dc.identifier.issn1812-2116
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Coughlan de Perez, Erin AU - van den Hurk, Bart AU - van Aalst, Maarten K AU - Amuron, Irene AU - Bamanya, Deus AU - Hauser, Tristan AU - Jongma, Brenden AU - Lopez, Ana AU - Mason, Simon AU - Mendler de Suarez, Janot AU - Pappenberger, Florian AU - Rueth, Alexandra AU - Stephens, Elisabeth AU - Suarez, Pablo AU - Wagemaker, Jurjen AU - Zsoter, Ervin AB - Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new Forecast-based Financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society Forecast-based Financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards, and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts. DA - 2016 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 9 J1 - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2016 SM - 1812-2108 SM - 1812-2116 T1 - Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action TI - Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationCoughlan de Perez E, van den Hurk B, van Aalst MK, Amuron I, Bamanya D, Hauser T, et al. Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2016;20(9):3549 - 3560. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34460.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Environmental and Geographical Science
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.sourceHydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions
dc.source.journalissue9
dc.source.journalvolume20
dc.source.pagination3549 - 3560
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016
dc.subject.otherBurns
dc.subject.otherDisaster Planning
dc.subject.otherHumans
dc.subject.otherMass Casualty Incidents
dc.subject.otherNational Health Programs
dc.subject.otherPractice Guidelines as Topic
dc.subject.otherSocieties, Medical
dc.subject.otherSouth Africa
dc.titleAction-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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