Is OMP-18 robust to alternative assumptions about anchovy dynamics?

de Moor, Carryn

Is OMP-18 robust to alternative assumptions about anchovy dynamics?

Report

2019

Abstract

The anchovy control parameter in OMP-18 is finalised given a revised baseline Operating Model (OM) and robustness to alternative OMs is tested. OMP-18 is robust to many of the alternative OMs tested. However, in five cases the risk to the anchovy resource under OMP-18 is notably higher than that assumed to be acceptable when tuning the Harvest Control Rule. These cases include i) should the stock-recruit relationship be better represented by a Hockey-Stick or ii) Ricker curve, than the Beverton Holt curve assumed when tuning OMP-18, iii) should natural mortality be lower than that assumed for the baseline OM, iv) should commercial selectivity not decrease for larger fish and v) if the egg survey estimates of abundance were over-estimates of spawner biomass instead of the absolute estimate assumed when tuning OMP-18.

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