Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially

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dc.contributor.advisorDorrington, Roben_ZA
dc.contributor.authorChinogurei, Chidoen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-09T12:52:58Z
dc.date.available2018-02-09T12:52:58Z
dc.date.issued2017en_ZA
dc.description.abstractIn developing countries, vital registration is the best source of death data that can be used to estimate adult mortality provided they are sufficiently complete. However, they are usually insufficient for estimating mortality sub-nationally due to incomplete registration. This research adapts a method used by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timæus at the provincial level to determine whether it is adequate for estimating adult mortality at the district municipality level in the year prior to the 2001 census. The method uses registration data adjusted for completeness of registration to scale (up or down) the deaths reported by households in the census by age group for each sex. The process of correcting the registered deaths in the year prior to the 2001 census involves estimating intercensal completeness for each population group and each sex between 1996 and 2001 using the average of results from the GGB and the SEG+δ methods. Thereafter, the results are used to estimate the completeness in each of the years within the intercensal period. Thus, an estimate of completeness is obtained in the year prior to the 2001 census for correcting the registered deaths at the population group level. These registered deaths are then used to obtain population group specific adjustment factors to correct the deaths reported by households at the district level, and thereafter to estimate adult mortality rates. Most districts in Kwa-Zulu-Natal have amongst the highest rates of adult mortality, while most districts in the Western Cape have amongst the lowest rates. Results show the Buffalo metropolitan municipality to have higher mortality than that expected for most of the district metropolitan municipalities for both sexes. The same is true for women in Mangaung metropolitan district. It is suspected that HIV prevalence had a significant impact on different levels of adult mortality in the districts, although some adults in the more urban provinces may have died in other provinces. At the provincial level, the method produces marginally higher estimates of adult mortality than the other sources. Provinces that reflect a higher level of mortality appear to deviate more from other research findings than those reflecting lower mortality. In conclusion, the method produces district estimates of ₄₅q₁₅ that are consistent with provincial estimates from other sources and with estimates of HIV prevalence at the district level.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationChinogurei, C. (2017). <i>Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Division of Actuarial Science. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27487en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationChinogurei, Chido. <i>"Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Division of Actuarial Science, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27487en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationChinogurei, C. 2017. Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Chinogurei, Chido AB - In developing countries, vital registration is the best source of death data that can be used to estimate adult mortality provided they are sufficiently complete. However, they are usually insufficient for estimating mortality sub-nationally due to incomplete registration. This research adapts a method used by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timæus at the provincial level to determine whether it is adequate for estimating adult mortality at the district municipality level in the year prior to the 2001 census. The method uses registration data adjusted for completeness of registration to scale (up or down) the deaths reported by households in the census by age group for each sex. The process of correcting the registered deaths in the year prior to the 2001 census involves estimating intercensal completeness for each population group and each sex between 1996 and 2001 using the average of results from the GGB and the SEG+δ methods. Thereafter, the results are used to estimate the completeness in each of the years within the intercensal period. Thus, an estimate of completeness is obtained in the year prior to the 2001 census for correcting the registered deaths at the population group level. These registered deaths are then used to obtain population group specific adjustment factors to correct the deaths reported by households at the district level, and thereafter to estimate adult mortality rates. Most districts in Kwa-Zulu-Natal have amongst the highest rates of adult mortality, while most districts in the Western Cape have amongst the lowest rates. Results show the Buffalo metropolitan municipality to have higher mortality than that expected for most of the district metropolitan municipalities for both sexes. The same is true for women in Mangaung metropolitan district. It is suspected that HIV prevalence had a significant impact on different levels of adult mortality in the districts, although some adults in the more urban provinces may have died in other provinces. At the provincial level, the method produces marginally higher estimates of adult mortality than the other sources. Provinces that reflect a higher level of mortality appear to deviate more from other research findings than those reflecting lower mortality. In conclusion, the method produces district estimates of ₄₅q₁₅ that are consistent with provincial estimates from other sources and with estimates of HIV prevalence at the district level. DA - 2017 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2017 T1 - Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially TI - Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27487 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/27487
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationChinogurei C. Evaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provincially. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Division of Actuarial Science, 2017 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27487en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDivision of Actuarial Scienceen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherDemographyen_ZA
dc.subject.otherActuarial Scienceen_ZA
dc.titleEvaluating the adequacy of the method of using vital registration and census data in estimating adult mortality when applied sub-provinciallyen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMPhilen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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