No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model

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dc.contributor.authorHeavens, Alan
dc.contributor.authorFANTAYE, YABEBAL
dc.contributor.authorSellentin, Elena
dc.contributor.authorEggers, Hans
dc.contributor.authorHosenie, Zafiirah
dc.contributor.authorKroon, Steve
dc.contributor.authorMootoovaloo, Arrykrishna
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T07:11:38Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T07:11:38Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractWe compute the Bayesian Evidence for models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilising carefully-defined nearest-neighbour distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov Chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors $B$ for many different model-dataset combinations. Standard 6-parameter flat $Lambda$CDM model is favoured over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favoured only when CMB lensing is not included. Many alternative models are strongly disfavoured by the data, including primordial correlated isocurvature models ($ln B-7.8$), non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($ln B-4.3$), running of the spectral index ($ln B = -4.7$), curvature ($ln B-3.6$), non-standard numbers of neutrinos ($ln B-3.1$), non-standard neutrino masses ($ln B-3.2$), non-standard lensing potential ($ln B-4.6$), evolving dark energy ($ln B-3.2$), sterile neutrinos ($ln B-6.9$), and extra sterile neutrinos with a non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($ln B-10.8$). Other models are less strongly disfavoured with respect to flat $Lambda$CDM. As with all analyses based on Bayesian Evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt the priors used in the Planck analysis, while performing a prior sensitivity analysis. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are disfavoured by Planck data. Only when newer Hubble constant measurements are included does $Lambda$CDM become disfavoured, and only mildly, compared with a dynamical dark energy model ($ln Bsim +2$).
dc.identifier.apacitationHeavens, A., FANTAYE, Y., Sellentin, E., Eggers, H., Hosenie, Z., Kroon, S., & Mootoovaloo, A. (2017). No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model. <i>Physical Review Letters</i>, 119(10), 174 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationHeavens, Alan, YABEBAL FANTAYE, Elena Sellentin, Hans Eggers, Zafiirah Hosenie, Steve Kroon, and Arrykrishna Mootoovaloo "No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model." <i>Physical Review Letters</i> 119, 10. (2017): 174 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationHeavens, A., FANTAYE, Y., Sellentin, E., Eggers, H., Hosenie, Z., Kroon, S. & Mootoovaloo, A. 2017. No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model. <i>Physical Review Letters.</i> 119(10):174 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0031-9007
dc.identifier.issn1079-7114
dc.identifier.issn1092-0145
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Heavens, Alan AU - FANTAYE, YABEBAL AU - Sellentin, Elena AU - Eggers, Hans AU - Hosenie, Zafiirah AU - Kroon, Steve AU - Mootoovaloo, Arrykrishna AB - We compute the Bayesian Evidence for models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilising carefully-defined nearest-neighbour distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov Chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors $B$ for many different model-dataset combinations. Standard 6-parameter flat $Lambda$CDM model is favoured over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favoured only when CMB lensing is not included. Many alternative models are strongly disfavoured by the data, including primordial correlated isocurvature models ($ln B-7.8$), non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($ln B-4.3$), running of the spectral index ($ln B = -4.7$), curvature ($ln B-3.6$), non-standard numbers of neutrinos ($ln B-3.1$), non-standard neutrino masses ($ln B-3.2$), non-standard lensing potential ($ln B-4.6$), evolving dark energy ($ln B-3.2$), sterile neutrinos ($ln B-6.9$), and extra sterile neutrinos with a non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($ln B-10.8$). Other models are less strongly disfavoured with respect to flat $Lambda$CDM. As with all analyses based on Bayesian Evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt the priors used in the Planck analysis, while performing a prior sensitivity analysis. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are disfavoured by Planck data. Only when newer Hubble constant measurements are included does $Lambda$CDM become disfavoured, and only mildly, compared with a dynamical dark energy model ($ln Bsim +2$). DA - 2017 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 10 J1 - Physical Review Letters LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2017 SM - 0031-9007 SM - 1079-7114 SM - 1092-0145 T1 - No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model TI - No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationHeavens A, FANTAYE Y, Sellentin E, Eggers H, Hosenie Z, Kroon S, et al. No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model. Physical Review Letters. 2017;119(10):174 - 177. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34658.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.sourcePhysical Review Letters
dc.source.journalissue10
dc.source.journalvolume119
dc.source.pagination174 - 177
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.101301
dc.subject.otherScience &
dc.subject.otherTechnology
dc.subject.otherPhysical Sciences
dc.subject.otherPhysics
dc.subject.otherMultidisciplinary
dc.subject.otherBAYES
dc.subject.other02 Physical Sciences
dc.subject.otherGeneral Physics
dc.subject.otherJournal Article
dc.titleNo Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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