Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty

dc.contributor.authorHeinrich, G
dc.contributor.authorHowells, M I
dc.contributor.authorBasson, L
dc.contributor.authorPetrie, J G
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-27T11:19:34Z
dc.date.available2016-01-27T11:19:34Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.date.updated2016-01-27T11:11:53Z
dc.description.abstractAppropriate energy–environment–economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty.en_ZA
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.007
dc.identifier.apacitationHeinrich, G., Howells, M. I., Basson, L., & Petrie, J. G. (2007). Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty. <i>Energy</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16582en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationHeinrich, G, M I Howells, L Basson, and J G Petrie "Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty." <i>Energy</i> (2007) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16582en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationHeinrich, G., Howells, M., Basson, L., & Petrie, J. (2007). Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty. Energy, 32(11), 2210-2229.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Heinrich, G AU - Howells, M I AU - Basson, L AU - Petrie, J G AB - Appropriate energy–environment–economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. DA - 2007 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - Energy LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2007 SM - 0360-5442 T1 - Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty TI - Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16582 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16582
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationHeinrich G, Howells MI, Basson L, Petrie JG. Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty. Energy. 2007; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16582.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentEnergy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceEnergyen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03605442
dc.subject.otherElectricity supply industry modelling
dc.subject.otherSustainability
dc.subject.otherUncertainty
dc.subject.otherMulti-objective optimisation
dc.titleElectricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertaintyen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsElectricity supply industry modellingen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsSustainabilityen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsUncertaintyen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsMulti-objective optimisationen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsStochastic programmingen_ZA
uct.type.filetype
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Heinrich_ERC_2007.pdf
Size:
1.35 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.72 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Collections