Some initial projections under the OMP2014 rules averaged over all the Operating Models in the Reference Set

Ross-Gillespie, Andrea; Butterworth, Doug S

Some initial projections under the OMP2014 rules averaged over all the Operating Models in the Reference Set

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2018-09

Abstract

All the nine Operating Models in the Reference Set are projected forward under the rules of OMP2014, as well as variants of OMP2014 where the TAC cap and one of the tuning parameters are adjusted. A bias correction related to the stock-recruitment residual distribution has now been included in the projection code. The results suggest that there is scope for some increase in exploitation of the hake resource, pending results from the robustness tests. While long-term projections look largely positive, a key question is what changes should be made to the rules of OMP2014 in light of short-term projections of the TAC for the next few years

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