An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa

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dc.contributor.advisorAltieri, Katyeen_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorCaetano, Tara Helenaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorTukwayo, Yonelaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-04T14:21:05Z
dc.date.available2017-10-04T14:21:05Z
dc.date.issued2016en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThe South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model adapted for the South African energy sector to analyse the potential socio-economic impacts of the development of shale gas. Simulation results indicate potential negative impacts on GDP contribution by all the sectors simulated, except the natural gas sector and the Gas-to-Liquid petroleum sector, as well as potential negative impacts on employment. The negative impacts on growth and employment are likely to worsen poverty and inequality. Potential impacts on trade are negative as the trade deficit increases. In terms of environmental impacts, the uptake of gas would decrease CO2 emissions. All results are compared to the baseline scenario. Based on these results, it is recommended that the decision on whether the development should go ahead or not ought to take into account the potential socio-economic costs, and potential ways to hedge against them.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationTukwayo, Y. (2016). <i>An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationTukwayo, Yonela. <i>"An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationTukwayo, Y. 2016. An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Tukwayo, Yonela AB - The South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model adapted for the South African energy sector to analyse the potential socio-economic impacts of the development of shale gas. Simulation results indicate potential negative impacts on GDP contribution by all the sectors simulated, except the natural gas sector and the Gas-to-Liquid petroleum sector, as well as potential negative impacts on employment. The negative impacts on growth and employment are likely to worsen poverty and inequality. Potential impacts on trade are negative as the trade deficit increases. In terms of environmental impacts, the uptake of gas would decrease CO2 emissions. All results are compared to the baseline scenario. Based on these results, it is recommended that the decision on whether the development should go ahead or not ought to take into account the potential socio-economic costs, and potential ways to hedge against them. DA - 2016 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2016 T1 - An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa TI - An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationTukwayo Y. An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Research of GSB, 2016 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentResearch of GSBen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subject.otherDevelopment Financeen_ZA
dc.titleAn analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMComen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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