Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics

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dc.contributor.advisorCohen, Bretten_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorNel, Willemen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPillay, Nalini Sooknananen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-05T03:50:42Z
dc.date.available2014-11-05T03:50:42Z
dc.date.issued2014en_ZA
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractModern economies are dependent on a reliable electricity supply for sustaining economic health and development, enabled by adequate energy planning and/or investment in capacity. Identifying drivers such as changes in income distribution that impact electricity demand is thus critical. This project made use of a system dynamics methodology with feedback loops to provide an insightful alternative to the conventional linear statistical empirical approaches such as multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis, generally used to explore the sensitivities of key driving forces which affect income distribution. The system dynamics simulation tool highlighted the direct causal influence of Gini coefficient on residential electricity consumption, by using equations as opposed to correlations. Results show that for a GDP growth rate of 2, by year 2035, a Gini coefficient of 0.5 is linked to a 3.14 increase in residential electricity demand while a Gini coefficient of 0.4 means a 4.73 increase in residential electricity demand. This dynamic is an important consideration for energy planners since government has (and continues to) introduce policies and mechanisms to ensure a more equal income distribution and hence a decrease in Gini coefficient from 0.67 to lower values.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationPillay, N. S. (2014). <i>Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Department of Mechanical Engineering. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9143en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationPillay, Nalini Sooknanan. <i>"Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9143en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationPillay, N. 2014. Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics. University of Cape Town.en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Pillay, Nalini Sooknanan AB - Modern economies are dependent on a reliable electricity supply for sustaining economic health and development, enabled by adequate energy planning and/or investment in capacity. Identifying drivers such as changes in income distribution that impact electricity demand is thus critical. This project made use of a system dynamics methodology with feedback loops to provide an insightful alternative to the conventional linear statistical empirical approaches such as multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis, generally used to explore the sensitivities of key driving forces which affect income distribution. The system dynamics simulation tool highlighted the direct causal influence of Gini coefficient on residential electricity consumption, by using equations as opposed to correlations. Results show that for a GDP growth rate of 2, by year 2035, a Gini coefficient of 0.5 is linked to a 3.14 increase in residential electricity demand while a Gini coefficient of 0.4 means a 4.73 increase in residential electricity demand. This dynamic is an important consideration for energy planners since government has (and continues to) introduce policies and mechanisms to ensure a more equal income distribution and hence a decrease in Gini coefficient from 0.67 to lower values. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2014 T1 - Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics TI - Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9143 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/9143
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationPillay NS. Using system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametrics. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment ,Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2014 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9143en_ZA
dc.language.isoengen_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Mechanical Engineeringen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.titleUsing system dynamics to explore gini coefficient parametricsen_ZA
dc.typeMaster Thesis
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationnameMScen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceThesisen_ZA
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