Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6)

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dc.contributor.advisorRagoasha, Moagabo
dc.contributor.advisorOrtega-Cisneros, Kelly
dc.contributor.authorMbede, Sivuyisiwe
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-22T08:43:14Z
dc.date.available2026-09-22T08:43:14Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.date.updated2026-09-22T08:41:42Z
dc.description.abstractThe Southern Benguela Upwelling System (SBUS) is a climate-sensitive region characterised by significant environmental changes. This study investigates the relationship between the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) and upwelling in the Southern Benguela, assessing how projected shifts in SAA due to climate changes may impact upwelling dynamics. The study used high-resolution models from the HighResMIP project within Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate the responses of nearshore processes to large-scale changes caused by climate change. Future climate projections were analysed at a 25-km spatial resolution, allowing an assessment of nearshore responses to large-scale atmospheric changes. Future period simulations are based on the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, similar to CMIP5 RCP8.5, and model simulations span historical (1950-2014) and future (2015-2050) periods. The results indicate a southward migration and intensification of the SAA, particularly during summer, strengthening local winds that will shift offshore and southward. These shifts will lead to the weakening of the alongshore upwelling intensity and a potential offshore displacement of climate-sensitive upwelling regions, characterised by intensified upwelling. These changes will impact nutrient availability, primary productivity, and the broader marine ecosystem, potentially impacting fisheries and coastal livelihoods. The Benguela Jet, crucial for transporting small pelagic fish eggs and larvae, is also projected to shift offshore weakening, reducing nearshore retention. While the study provides valuable insights, it acknowledges limitations in resolving finer-scale coastal processes at 25-km resolution and uncertainties inherent in high-emission projections. Future research should focus on refining regional downscaling techniques and further investigate the implications of these changes for adaptive, ecosystem-based management. Enhancing adaptive capacity through science-informed policy recommendations, community resilience strategies, and informed management practices will be essential to safeguard the region's ecological integrity and socio-economic sustainability as we approach 2050.
dc.identifier.apacitationMbede, S. (2026). <i>Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6)</i>. (). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationMbede, Sivuyisiwe. <i>"Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6)."</i> ., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography, 2026. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMbede, S. 2026. Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6). . University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Mbede, Sivuyisiwe AB - The Southern Benguela Upwelling System (SBUS) is a climate-sensitive region characterised by significant environmental changes. This study investigates the relationship between the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) and upwelling in the Southern Benguela, assessing how projected shifts in SAA due to climate changes may impact upwelling dynamics. The study used high-resolution models from the HighResMIP project within Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate the responses of nearshore processes to large-scale changes caused by climate change. Future climate projections were analysed at a 25-km spatial resolution, allowing an assessment of nearshore responses to large-scale atmospheric changes. Future period simulations are based on the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, similar to CMIP5 RCP8.5, and model simulations span historical (1950-2014) and future (2015-2050) periods. The results indicate a southward migration and intensification of the SAA, particularly during summer, strengthening local winds that will shift offshore and southward. These shifts will lead to the weakening of the alongshore upwelling intensity and a potential offshore displacement of climate-sensitive upwelling regions, characterised by intensified upwelling. These changes will impact nutrient availability, primary productivity, and the broader marine ecosystem, potentially impacting fisheries and coastal livelihoods. The Benguela Jet, crucial for transporting small pelagic fish eggs and larvae, is also projected to shift offshore weakening, reducing nearshore retention. While the study provides valuable insights, it acknowledges limitations in resolving finer-scale coastal processes at 25-km resolution and uncertainties inherent in high-emission projections. Future research should focus on refining regional downscaling techniques and further investigate the implications of these changes for adaptive, ecosystem-based management. Enhancing adaptive capacity through science-informed policy recommendations, community resilience strategies, and informed management practices will be essential to safeguard the region's ecological integrity and socio-economic sustainability as we approach 2050. DA - 2026 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Southern Benguela Upwelling System KW - Climate Change KW - upwelling KW - South Atlantic Anticyclone KW - nearshore processes KW - adaptive capacity KW - ecosystem-based management LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2026 T1 - Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6) TI - Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6) UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationMbede S. Investigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6). []. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Oceanography, 2026 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/43797en_ZA
dc.language.isoen
dc.language.rfc3066eng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Oceanography
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subjectSouthern Benguela Upwelling System
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectupwelling
dc.subjectSouth Atlantic Anticyclone
dc.subjectnearshore processes
dc.subjectadaptive capacity
dc.subjectecosystem-based management
dc.titleInvestigating future climate projections for southern Benguela using downscaled high-resolution climate models from the HighResMIP project (CMIP6)
dc.typeThesis / Dissertation
dc.type.qualificationlevelMasters
dc.type.qualificationlevelMSc
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