Summary of progress and plans for penguin-related analyses, with reference to comments made on previous submissions

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University of Cape Town

Modelling of penguin dynamics, including of their interaction with pelagic fish abundance, by MARAM scientists is taking place on three fronts: I) Models of the possible impact of fishing in the vicinity of penguin colonies II) Models of the impact of the total pelagic catch on penguin dynamics III) Models of Robben Island penguin dynamics using tag-recapture data. This paper summarises the current situation, offering an understanding of recent debates on certain aspects of earlier analyses, and indicates plans for future analyses on all three fronts. It should be noted that progress on I) is linked to the initiatives of the ICTT (Island Closure Task Team) of the PWG. Furthermore note that it is planned to submit results from the analyses planned for review at the annual international assessment review workshop scheduled to be held over 29 November to 3 December later this year, so that results therefrom can inform the PWG deliberations later in December from which recommendations for management of the Pelagic Fishery for 2011 will be developed.