Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment
| dc.contributor.author | Nattrass, Nicoli | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-05-10T08:57:00Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-05-10T08:57:00Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2007 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2016-05-10T08:54:21Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper shows how two publicly available epidemiological modelling packages, namely the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic Model, predict very different impacts from rolling out highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on new HIV infections. Using South Africa as a case study, it shows that the ASSA2003 model predicts a significant drop in new HIV infections as HAART is rolled out, whereas the Spectrum model assumes that HAART does not have a preventative impact (and in fact generates a small increase in new HIV infections). Users will thus draw different conclusions about the public health benefits of HAART depending on which modelling package they use. Despite being presented as a policy-oriented modelling tool capable of exploring 'what if' questions about the impact of different policy choices, the Spectrum model is illequipped to do so with regard to a HAART rollout. Unlike Spectrum, ASSA2003 is more flexible and its assumptions are clear. Better modelling and more information (including about the relationship between HAART and sexual risk behaviour) is required to develop appropriate public-policy modelling for the HAART era. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.apacitation | Nattrass, N. (2007). Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment. <i>African Journal of AIDS Research</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19542 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.chicagocitation | Nattrass, Nicoli "Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment." <i>African Journal of AIDS Research</i> (2007) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19542 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.citation | Nattrass, N. (2007). Modelling the Relationship Between Antiretroviral Treatment and HIV Prevention: The Limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a Changing Policy Environment. Centre for Social Science Research, University of Cape Town. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1608-5906 | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.ris | TY - Journal Article AU - Nattrass, Nicoli AB - This paper shows how two publicly available epidemiological modelling packages, namely the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic Model, predict very different impacts from rolling out highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on new HIV infections. Using South Africa as a case study, it shows that the ASSA2003 model predicts a significant drop in new HIV infections as HAART is rolled out, whereas the Spectrum model assumes that HAART does not have a preventative impact (and in fact generates a small increase in new HIV infections). Users will thus draw different conclusions about the public health benefits of HAART depending on which modelling package they use. Despite being presented as a policy-oriented modelling tool capable of exploring 'what if' questions about the impact of different policy choices, the Spectrum model is illequipped to do so with regard to a HAART rollout. Unlike Spectrum, ASSA2003 is more flexible and its assumptions are clear. Better modelling and more information (including about the relationship between HAART and sexual risk behaviour) is required to develop appropriate public-policy modelling for the HAART era. DA - 2007 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - African Journal of AIDS Research LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2007 SM - 1608-5906 T1 - Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment TI - Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19542 ER - | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19542 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2989/16085900709490407 | |
| dc.identifier.vancouvercitation | Nattrass N. Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment. African Journal of AIDS Research. 2007; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19542. | en_ZA |
| dc.language | eng | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | National Inquiry Services Centre | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.department | Centre for Social Science Research(CSSR) | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.faculty | Faculty of Humanities | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher.institution | University of Cape Town | |
| dc.source | African Journal of AIDS Research | |
| dc.source.uri | http://www.nisc.co.za/products/1/journals/african-journal-of-aids-research | |
| dc.subject.other | Demographic models | |
| dc.subject.other | HAART | |
| dc.subject.other | Health impact | |
| dc.subject.other | Mathematical models | |
| dc.subject.other | Policy development | |
| dc.subject.other | Sexual risk behavior | |
| dc.title | Modelling the relationship between antiretroviral treatment and HIV prevention: The limits of Spectrum's AIDS Impact Model in a changing policy environment | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Journal Article | en_ZA |
| uct.type.filetype | Text | |
| uct.type.filetype | Image | |
| uct.type.publication | Research | en_ZA |
| uct.type.resource | Article | en_ZA |