Updated results from a Spatial Age-Structured Model of African Penguin populations for use in linking to the pelagic OMP testing process

Working Paper


Permanent link to this Item
Journal Title
Link to Journal
Journal ISSN
Volume Title

University of Cape Town


University of Cape Town

Updated results of an earlier penguin model are presented. The model focuses on four colonies 1) Robben Island; 2) Dassen Island; 3) Boulders and 4) Dyer island, although projections will narrow the focus further to the first two of these. Some progress has been made in terms of fitting the model adequately to historic data. However, there are still problems with the fits such that the current model is not yet at the stage where it can be linked to the pelagic OMP (Operational Management Procedure) testing process to take account of the relationship between the breeding success and also natural mortality of African penguins and the abundance of both anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and/or sardine Sardinops sagax. Despite extensive investigations, in many cases no overly strong functional relationships between penguin breeding success and pelagic abundance have been found. As a result, functional relationships are being investigated between the natural mortality of African penguins and pelagic abundance, with results suggesting that a relationship exists at Robben Island, but not at Dassen Island. Dassen and Robben Islands are split and modelled separately for these and other reasons.