Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

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dc.contributor.authorLaufkötter, C
dc.contributor.authorVogt, M
dc.contributor.authorGruber, N
dc.contributor.authorAita-Noguchi, M
dc.contributor.authorAumont, O
dc.contributor.authorBopp, L
dc.contributor.authorBuitenhuis, E
dc.contributor.authorDoney, S C
dc.contributor.authorDunne, J
dc.contributor.authorHashioka, T
dc.contributor.authorHauck, J
dc.contributor.authorHirata, T
dc.contributor.authorJohn, J
dc.contributor.authorLe Quéré, C
dc.contributor.authorLima, D I
dc.contributor.authorNakano, H
dc.contributor.authorSeferian, R
dc.contributor.authorTotterdell, I
dc.contributor.authorVichi, M
dc.contributor.authorVölker, C
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-08T06:20:15Z
dc.date.available2021-10-08T06:20:15Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractPast model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012–2031 average and the 2081–2100 average is up to 3 mol C m<sup>-2</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.
dc.identifier.apacitationLaufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., ... Völker, C. (2015). Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. <i>Biogeosciences</i>, 12(4), 3731 - 3824. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationLaufkötter, C, M Vogt, N Gruber, M Aita-Noguchi, O Aumont, L Bopp, E Buitenhuis, et al "Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models." <i>Biogeosciences</i> 12, 4. (2015): 3731 - 3824. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationLaufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E. & Doney, S.C. et al. 2015. Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. <i>Biogeosciences.</i> 12(4):3731 - 3824. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1726-4170
dc.identifier.issn1726-4189
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Laufkötter, C AU - Vogt, M AU - Gruber, N AU - Aita-Noguchi, M AU - Aumont, O AU - Bopp, L AU - Buitenhuis, E AU - Doney, S C AU - Dunne, J AU - Hashioka, T AU - Hauck, J AU - Hirata, T AU - John, J AU - Le Quéré, C AU - Lima, D I AU - Nakano, H AU - Seferian, R AU - Totterdell, I AU - Vichi, M AU - Völker, C AB - Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012–2031 average and the 2081–2100 average is up to 3 mol C m<sup>-2</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town IS - 4 J1 - Biogeosciences LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PY - 2015 SM - 1726-4170 SM - 1726-4189 T1 - Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models TI - Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationLaufkötter C, Vogt M, Gruber N, Aita-Noguchi M, Aumont O, Bopp L, et al. Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. Biogeosciences. 2015;12(4):3731 - 3824. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/34235.en_ZA
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisher.departmentDepartment of Oceanography
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Science
dc.sourceBiogeosciences
dc.source.journalissue4
dc.source.journalvolume12
dc.source.pagination3731 - 3824
dc.source.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
dc.subject.otherEcology
dc.subject.otherBiology (General)
dc.subject.otherQ
dc.subject.otherQH501-531
dc.subject.otherGeology
dc.subject.otherLife
dc.subject.otherQH540-549.5
dc.subject.otherQE1-996.5
dc.subject.otherQH301-705.5
dc.subject.otherScience
dc.titleDrivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
dc.typeJournal Article
uct.type.publicationResearch
uct.type.resourceJournal Article
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