Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

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dc.contributor.authorWinkler, Harald
dc.contributor.authorHaw, Mary
dc.contributor.authorHughes, Alison
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T08:16:48Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T08:16:48Z
dc.date.issued2009
dc.date.updated2016-02-03T09:39:37Z
dc.description.abstractTechnology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa’s electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/tCO2-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.en_ZA
dc.identifier.apacitationWinkler, H., Haw, M., & Hughes, A. (2009). Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios. <i>Energy Policy</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16874en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitationWinkler, Harald, Mary Haw, and Alison Hughes "Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios." <i>Energy Policy</i> (2009) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16874en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationWinkler, H.; Hughes, A. & Haw, M. (2009) Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy 37:4987–4996.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0301-4215en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Winkler, Harald AU - Haw, Mary AU - Hughes, Alison AB - Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa’s electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/tCO2-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. DA - 2009 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - Energy Policy LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2009 SM - 0301-4215 T1 - Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios TI - Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16874 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11427/16874
dc.identifier.vancouvercitationWinkler H, Haw M, Hughes A. Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy. 2009; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16874.en_ZA
dc.languageengen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.publisher.departmentEnergy Research Centreen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.sourceEnergy Policyen_ZA
dc.source.urihttp://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy-policy/
dc.subject.otherSustainable development
dc.subject.otherClimatic changes
dc.subject.otherGreenhouse gas mitigation
dc.titleTechnology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenariosen_ZA
dc.typeJournal Articleen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsTechnology learningen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsRenewable energyen_ZA
uct.subject.keywordsClimate change mitigationen_ZA
uct.type.filetypeText
uct.type.filetypeImage
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceArticleen_ZA
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