Results for final set of candidate OMPs for the new OMP 2011 for West Coast rock lobster

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University of Cape Town

Results of the final set of alternate candidate OMPs are presented here. All results are presented for the full 1000 simulations. The OMP candidates reported here have three main new features compared with the current OMP 2007 re-cast: 1) Allowance of the inter-annual TAC downward constraint to be changed from the baseline 10% to as much as 30% if circumstances require (RULE 1) 2) Allowance for exceptional circumstances to be invoked in a super-area which results in all fishing in that super-area being suspended (EC rule). 3) After the initial total offshore TACs area calculated, a further adjustment is made, where 20% of the offshore A8+ TAC is transferred to A3+4, A5+6, and A7. This 20% removal from A8+ is phased in over four years (i.e. will only be 5% in first season 2011). Each year a fixed 20 MT is given to A5+6, and the remainder of the transferred tonnage from A8+ is split between A3+4 and A7 in a ratio 30:70. The idea underlying the “EC rule” is not to suggest that this complete closure would occur in practice. Rather, what would need happen is an early OMP review with shifting of effort by nearshore, commercial and interim relief/subsistence to other super-areas. The reason underlying presenting calculation results in this extreme form is to demonstrate that if the situation became “so bad” in a super-area, it remains possible to achieve some reasonable extent of recovery by appreciable reductions in future catches from that super-area. Results all assume the “alternative” sector split method proposed, except for one model which shows results for the “current” sector split.