South African sardine assessment posterior distributions and sensitivity tests

de Moor, Carryn

South African sardine assessment posterior distributions and sensitivity tests

Report

2020

Abstract

A number of sensitivity tests to assumptions underlying the baseline assessment of South African sardine have been undertaken. Sardine recruitment is highly variable and there is no clear stock recruit relationship for the west or south components. A Beverton Holt stock recruitment relationship for the west component thus provides a very similar fit to that achieved by the Hockey Stick relationship assumed for the baseline model. These sensitivity tests also indicate that sardine natural mortality may have increased and remained at a higher rate after the peak recruitment years at the turn of the century.

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