Schooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa

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dc.creatorLam, David
dc.creatorArdington, Cally
dc.creatorLeibbrandt, Murray
dc.date2012-12-03T12:05:31Z
dc.date2012-12-03T12:05:31Z
dc.date2007-11
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-28T10:05:03Z
dc.date.available2015-05-28T10:05:03Z
dc.date.issued2015-05-28
dc.descriptionThis paper develops a stochastic model of grade repetition to analyze the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that progress through secondary school is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. In grades 8-11 the effect of these scores on grade progression is much stronger for white and coloured students than for African students, while there is no racial difference in the impact of the scores on passing the nationally standardized grade 12 matriculation exam. The results provide strong support for our model, suggesting that grade progression in African schools is poorly linked to actual ability and learning. The results point to the importance of considering the stochastic component of grade repetition in analyzing school systems with high failure rates.
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/11090/36
dc.identifier.ris TY - Report DA - 2015-05-28 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town KW - Secondary school KW - Stochastic model of grade repetition KW - Matric KW - Education KW - Grade progression KW - Longitudinal data KW - CAPS KW - Grade failure LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Schooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa TI - Schooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11090/36 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11090/36
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSouthern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit
dc.publisher.departmentSALDRUen_ZA
dc.publisher.facultyFaculty of Commerceen_ZA
dc.publisher.institutionUniversity of Cape Town
dc.subjectSecondary school
dc.subjectStochastic model of grade repetition
dc.subjectMatric
dc.subjectEducation
dc.subjectGrade progression
dc.subjectLongitudinal data
dc.subjectCAPS
dc.subjectGrade failure
dc.titleSchooling as a lottery: Racial differences in school advancement in urban South Africa
dc.typeReport
uct.type.publicationResearchen_ZA
uct.type.resourceSALDRU Reporten_ZA
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