Testing for purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity in the presence of monetary and exchange rate regime shifts

Lacerda, Miguel Jorge Pery; Fedderke, Johannes W; Haines, Linda Margaret

Testing for purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity in the presence of monetary and exchange rate regime shifts

Journal Article

2010

Journal Title

South African Journal of Economics

Link to Journal

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01254.x/full

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Department of Statistical Sciences

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Testing for purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been the focus of many empirically oriented studies. While these simple economic theories of exchange rate and interest rate determination are theoretically attractive, the empirical support for these equilibrium conditions is at best mixed. Many potential reasons have been cited in the literature for the failure of such studies, ranging from market imperfections to inappropriate modelling strategies. The current state-of-the-art procedure involves testing for two cointegrating vectors in a multivariate error correction model which may be economically identified as the PPP and UIP relations. However, such a procedure does not account for policy regime shifts which distort the underlying PPP and UIP relations. In this paper, a Markov-switching vector error correction model (VECM) is considered for time series data in which monetary and exchange rate regime shifts are known to be present. Weak evidence in favour of PPP and UIP is established in a standard linear VECM, although the residuals of this model indicate that it is inappropriate in terms of functional form. The Markov-switching VECM, however, provides convincing evidence in favour of both the PPP and UIP relations and a marked improvement in the residual distributions.