On the compatibility of results from ADAPT-VPA and transition-phased-based trends in age-at-maturity for the I-Stock of Antarctic minke whales

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2007

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International Whaling Commission

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University of Cape Town

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Abstract
A counter example is provided to show that inferences of incompatibility between population trends from ADAPT-VPA and independently estimated changes in the age-at-sexual-maturity of Antarctic minke whales over the late 1940s to late 1960s are not robust to plausible variants of the ADAPT-VPA assessment (specifically in this case admitting the possibility of a small negative slope in selectivity at larger ages). Final conclusions on this matter should await fuller investigations on the ability to the ADAPT-VPA estimator to reliably estimate the shape of the time-trend in carrying capacity over this period, upon which inferences of compatibility or otherwise are critically dependent.
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