Long Term Mitigation Scenarios: Technical Summary

Abstract

The Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) process is mandated by Cabinet, led by the Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism and project managed by the Energy Research Centre. The purpose is to outline different scenarios of mitigation action by South Africa, to inform long-term national policy and to provide a solid basis for our position in multi-lateral climate negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. LTMS has been conducted as a process involving key stakeholders, informed by the best available information. Four research teams produced information that was discussed by a Scenario Building Team (SBT) comprised of strategic thinkers from a range of government departments, key industry players and civil society. The Technical Summary provides a concise version of the technical work reviewed and accepted by the SBT. The scenarios produced by the LTMS process are data-based scenarios. This Technical Summary therefore provides the basis, in abridged form, for the scenarios – stories of possible futures. The Scenarios together with the underlying technical work are forwarded by the SBT to high-level discussions in the first half of 2008.