Browsing by Subject "technical analysis"

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    An online learning algorithm for technical trading
    (2019) Murphy, Nicholas John; Gebbie, Tim
    We use an adversarial expert based online learning algorithm to learn the optimal parameters required to maximise wealth trading zero-cost portfolio strategies. The learning algorithm is used to determine the relative population dynamics of technical trading strategies that can survive historical back-testing as well as form an overall aggregated portfolio trading strategy from the set of underlying trading strategies implemented on daily and intraday Johannesburg Stock Exchange data. The resulting population time-series are investigated using unsupervised learning for dimensionality reduction and visualisation. A key contribution is that the overall aggregated trading strategies are tested for statistical arbitrage using a novel hypothesis test proposed by Jarrow et al. [31] on both daily sampled and intraday time-scales. The (low frequency) daily sampled strategies fail the arbitrage tests after costs, while the (high frequency) intraday sampled strategies are not falsified as statistical arbitrages after costs. The estimates of trading strategy success, cost of trading and slippage are considered along with an offline benchmark portfolio algorithm for performance comparison. In addition, the algorithms generalisation error is analysed by recovering a probability of back-test overfitting estimate using a nonparametric procedure introduced by Bailey et al. [19]. The work aims to explore and better understand the interplay between different technical trading strategies from a data-informed perspective.
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    Correlation emergence in two coupled limit order books in the fluid limit
    (2024) Bauer, Dominic; Gebbie, Timothy
    Weuse random walks to simulate the fluid limit of two coupled diffusive limit order books to model correlation emergence. The model implements the arrival, cancellation and diffusion of orders coupled by a pairs trader profiting from the mean-reversion between the two order-books in the fluid limit for a Lit order book with vanishing boundary conditions and order volume conservation we are able to demonstrate the recovery of an Epps effect. We show how various stylised facts depend on the model parameters and the numerical scheme and discuss various strengths and weaknesses of the approach. We demonstrate how the Epps effect depends on different choices of time and price discretisation and show how an Epps effect can emerge without recourse to market microstructure effects.