Browsing by Subject "predator"

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    Conditioning SMOM using the agreed calendar of observed changes in predator and krill abundance: a further step in the development of a management procedure for krill fisheries in area 48
    (2008) Plagányi, Éva E; Butterworth, Doug S
    The updated version of the Spatial Multi-species Operating Model (SMOM) of krill-predatorfishery dynamics described in an accompanying paper is conditioned using the WG-SAM set of reference observations for Area 48 (the SAM calendar). Results are presented for two implementations of SMOM, one with the time series of krill abundance fixed on input, and the other incorporating an explicit model of krill dynamics. Additional versions of SMOM that may need to be conditioned are discussed. In general the two SMOM implementations are broadly successful in reproducing the direction and timing of observed changes in predator abundance. The main method of conditioning involved estimating a shape parameter (the “steepness”) of the predator-prey interaction formulation. The steepness values estimated suggest that penguins respond sooner than other predators to decreasing levels of krill abundance. Given data on fish catches, the model estimates the starting (1970) fish abundance level, with results suggesting that fish populations in several of the SSMUs are much reduced compared to their 1970 levels. The conditioned operating models presented here constitute a further step towards the development of a spatially-structured Management Procedure (MP) for the krill fishery by contributing to the set of such operating models to be used to simulation test candidate MPs for robust performance. The next step involves agreeing the relative plausibilities (weights) for the different operating models. An outline of suggested future steps in the MP development process is discussed.
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    Seals and Sharks
    (2014-09-12) O'Riain, Justin; Neary, Tim
    In this radio broadcast, Justin o' Riain discusses shark and seal interactions in the False Bay/Seal Island area, focusing on predator-prey interactions and predation behaviour. Additional topics discussed are the seals' response to aggressive predation behaviour, including travelling strategies and learning patterns among young seals. Ethology of seals and sharks, specifically focusing on predator-prey relations, avoidance and predation strategies. Image provided courtesy of Christopher under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.
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    Was overfishing of predatory fish responsible for a lobster-induced regime shift in the Benguela?
    (Elsevier, 2014) Blamey, Laura K; Plagányi, Éva E; Branch, George M
    The top-down effects of predators have been demonstrated for terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems and their removal can cause a shift in ecosystem state. In many cases, the depletion of top-predators occurred long before humans began monitoring these systems, but models can elucidate likely ecosystem changes. In this paper we use a multispecies model to demonstrate that the abundance of predators can induce different ecosystem states, emphasising the importance of sustainable harvesting. Our model is founded on empirical data documenting a regime-shift that took place in the kelp-forest ecosystem along the south-west coast of South Africa following an ‘invasion’ by the West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii in the early 1990s. Formerly dominated by herbivores and encrusting corallines, the ecosystem became dominated by lobsters and macroalgae. A combination of illegal fishing of abalone Haliotis midae and the lobster-induced extermination of the urchin Parechinus angulosus (which shelters juvenile abalone) depleted abalone stocks severely. In this currently over-fished ecosystem where predators of lobsters are scarce, the regime-shift appears irreversible. Using an intermediate complexity model of lobster, urchin and abalone relationships, we simulated the effects of predatory fish at various population levels on the course of development of the currently lobster-dominated system. Our results indicate that current levels of fish biomass (<10% of the pristine population) would have been too small to significantly affect the lobster population. However, at pristine levels of fish abundance (or even 50% less), the invasion of lobsters would have been controlled by linefish, and urchin and abalone populations would not have collapsed. The effect of the lobster invasion had a greater influence on abalone abundance than illegal fishing, but together they severely depleted the abalone. Ecosystem effects of historical exploitation of top predators are of central concern, and our ecosystem model indicates that depletion of linefish had severe consequences for lobsters, urchins and abalone, illustrating how overfishing of top predators may precipitate regime shifts, with profound socio-economic consequences.