Browsing by Subject "Mortality"

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    Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa
    (2019-08-28) Bassett, Ingrid V; Xu, Ai; Giddy, Janet; Bogart, Laura M; Boulle, Andrew; Millham, Lucia; Losina, Elena; Parker, Robert A
    Abstract Background Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa. Methods We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health). Results Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60. Conclusions Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus. Trial registration Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.
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    Clinical features and predictors of mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Niger
    (2021-12-14) Katoto, Patrick D M C; Aboubacar, Issoufou; Oumarou, Batouré; Adehossi, Eric; Anya, Blanche-Philomene M; Mounkaila, Aida; Moustapha, Adamou; Ishagh, El k; Diawara, Gbaguidi A; Nsiari-Muzeyi, Biey J; Didier, Tambwe; Wiysonge, Charles S
    Introduction COVID-19 has spread across the African continent, including Niger. Yet very little is known about the phenotype of people who tested positive for COVID-19. In this humanitarian crises region, we aimed at characterizing variation in clinical features among hospitalized patients with COVID-19-like syndrome and to determine predictors associated with COVID-19 mortality among those with confirmed COVID-19. Methods The study was a retrospective nationwide cohort of hospitalized patients isolated for COVID-19 infection, using the health data of the National Health Information System from 19 March 2020 (onset of the pandemic) to 17 November 2020. All hospitalized patients with COVID-19-like syndrome at admission were included. A Cox-proportional regression model was built to identify predictors of in-hospital death among patients with confirmed COVID-19. Results Sixty-five percent (472/729) of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 like syndrome tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 among which, 70 (15%) died. Among the patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection, age was significantly associated with increased odds of reporting cough (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.03) and fever/chills (aOR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02–1.04). Comorbidity was associated with increased odds of presenting with cough (aOR 1.59; 95% CI 1.03–2.45) and shortness of breath (aOR 2.03; 95% CI 1.27–3.26) at admission. In addition, comorbidity (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 2.04; 95% CI 2.38–6.35), shortness of breath at baseline (aHR 2.04; 95% CI 2.38–6.35) and being 60 years or older (aHR 5.34; 95% CI 3.25–8.75) increased the risk of COVID-19 mortality two to five folds. Conclusion Comorbidity, shortness of breath on admission, and being aged 60 years or older are associated with a higher risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in a humanitarian crisis setting. While robust prospective data are needed to guide evidence, our data might aid intensive care resource allocation in Niger.
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    Detection of lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in urine is an independent predictor of mortality risk in patients receiving treatment for HIV-associated tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis
    (2016) Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Peters, Jurgens A; Flach, Clare; Lawn, Stephen D
    BackgroundSimple immune capture assays that detect mycobacterial lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen in urine are promising new tools for the diagnosis of HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV-TB). In addition, however, recent prospective cohort studies of patients with HIV-TB have demonstrated associations between LAM in the urine and increased mortality risk during TB treatment, indicating an additional utility of urinary LAM as a prognostic marker. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the evidence concerning the strength of this relationship in adults with HIV-TB in sub-Saharan Africa, thereby quantifying the assay’s prognostic value.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE and Embase databases using comprehensive search terms for ‘HIV’, ‘TB’, ‘LAM’ and ‘sub-Saharan Africa’. Identified studies were reviewed and selected according to predefined criteria.ResultsWe identified 10 studies eligible for inclusion in this systematic review, reporting on a total of 1172 HIV-TB cases. Of these, 512 patients (44%) tested positive for urinary LAM. After a variable duration of follow-up of between 2 and 6months, overall case fatality rates among HIV-TB cases varied between 7% and 53%. Pooled summary estimates generated by random-effects meta-analysis showed a two-fold increased risk of mortality for urinary LAM-positive HIV-TB cases compared to urinary LAM-negative HIV-TB cases (relative risk 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.6–3.1). Some heterogeneity was explained by study setting and patient population in sub-group analyses. Five studies also reported multivariable analyses of risk factors for mortality, and pooled summary estimates demonstrated over two-fold increased mortality risk (odds ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4–4.5) among urinary LAM-positive HIV-TB cases, even after adjustment for other risk factors for mortality, including CD4 cell count.ConclusionsWe have demonstrated that detectable LAM in urine is associated with increased risk of mortality during TB treatment, and that this relationship remains after adjusting for other risk factors for mortality. This may simply be due to a positive test for urinary LAM serving as a marker of higher mycobacterial load and greater disease dissemination and severity. Alternatively, LAM antigen may directly compromise host immune responses through its known immunomodulatory effects. Detectable LAM in the urine is an independent risk factor for mortality among patients receiving treatment for HIV-TB. Further research is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and to determine whether this vulnerable patient population may benefit from adjunctive interventions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0603-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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    Development and validation of a prognostic score during tuberculosis treatment
    (2017) Pefura-Yone, Eric Walter; Balkissou, Adamou Dodo; Poka-Mayap, Virginie; Fatime-Abaicho, Hadja Koté; Enono-Edende, Patrick Thierry; Kengne, André Pascal
    BACKGROUND: Death under care is a major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) treatment programs. We derived and validated a simple score to predict mortality during tuberculosis treatment in high endemicity areas. METHODS: We used data for patients aged ≥15 years, diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis at the Yaounde Jamot Hospital between January 2012 and December 2013. Baseline characteristics associated with mortality were investigated using logistic regressions. A simple prognosis score (CABI) was constructed with regression coefficients for predictors in the final model. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling procedures. Models discrimination was assessed using c-statistics and calibration assessed via calibration plots and the Hosmer and Lemeshwow (H-L) statistics. The optimal score was based on the Youden's index. RESULTS: A total of 2250 patients (men 57.2%) with a mean age of 35.8 years were included; among whom 213 deaths (cumulative incidence 9.5%) were recorded. Clinical form of tuberculosis (C), age (A, years), adjusted body mass index (B, BMI, kg/m2) and status for HIV (Human immunodefiency virus) infection (I) were significant predictors in the final model (p < 0.0001) which was of the form Death risk = 1/(1 + e - (-1.3120 + 0.0474 ∗ age - 0.1866 ∗ BMI + 1.1637 (if smear negative TB) + 0.5418(if extra - pulmonary TB) + 1.3820(if HIV+))). The c-statistic was 0.812 in the derivation sample and 0.808 after correction for optimism. The calibration was good [H-Lχ2 = 6.44 (p = 0.60)]. The optimal absolute risk threshold was 4.8%, corresponding to a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 67%. CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary promising findings from this study require confirmation through independent external validation studies. If confirmed, the model derived could facilitate the stratification of TB patients for mortality risk and implementation of additional monitoring and management measures in vulnerable patients.
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    Drought, Climate change and Vegetation response in the succulent karoo, South Africa
    (2009) Hoffman, M T; Carrick, P J; Gillson, L; West, A G
    For the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, the frequency of drought is predicted to increase over the next 100 years, with dire consequences for the vegetation of this biodiversity hotspot. We analysed historical 20th century rainfall records for six rainfall stations within the succulent karoo biome to determine if the signal of increasing drought frequency is already apparent, and whether mean annual rainfall is decreasing. We found no evidence for a decrease either in mean annual rainfall or in the incidence of drought, as measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) over the 20th century. Evidence points to a drying trend from 1900-1950 while no significant trend in rainfall and drought was found at most stations from 1951-2000. In a second analysis we synthesised the information concerning the response of adult succulent karoo biome plants and seedlings to extended drought conditions. General findings are that responses to drought differ between species, and that longevity is an important life history trait related to drought survival. Growth form is a poor predictor of drought response across the biome. There was a range of responses to drought among adult plants of various growth forms, and among non-succulent seedlings. Leaf-succulent seedlings, however, exhibited phenomenal drought resistance, the majority surviving drought long after all the experimentally comparative non-succulent seedlings had died. Our synthesis showed that previous studies on the impact of drought on succulent karoo biome plants differ greatly in terms of their location, sampling design, measured values and plant responses. A suite of coordinated long-term field observations, experiments and models are therefore needed to assess the response of succulent karoo biome species to key drought events as they occur over time and to integrate this information into conservation planning.
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    Early childbearing, human capital attainment and mortality risk
    (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, 2015-05-28) Ardington, Cally; Menendez, Alicia; Mutevedzi, Tinofa
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    HIV and TB co-infection in the ART era: CD4 count distributions and TB case fatality in Cape Town
    (BioMed Central, 2018-07-31) Kaplan, Richard; Hermans, Sabine; Caldwell, Judy; Jennings, Karen; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Wood, Robin
    Background In Cape Town, the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased over the last decade with an estimated coverage of 63% of HIV- positive patients in 2013. The influence of ART on the characteristics of the population of HIV-positive patients presenting to the primary care TB programme is unknown. In this study, we examined trends in CD4 count distribution, ART usage and treatment outcomes among HIV-positive TB patients in Cape Town from 2009 to 2013. Methods Data from the electronic TB register on all newly registered drug-sensitive TB patients ≥18 years were analyzed retrospectively. Descriptive statistics were used to compare baseline characteristics, the CD4 count distribution and TB treatment outcomes both by year of treatment and ART status at the start of TB treatment. Survival analyses were used to assess the change in mortality risk during TB treatment over time, stratified by ART status at start of TB treatment. Results 118,989 patients were treated over 5 years. HIV prevalence among TB patients decreased from 50.9% in 2009 to 49.0% in 2013. The absolute number of HIV-positive TB cases declined by 13.2% between 2010 and 2013. More patients entered the TB programme on ART in 2013 compared to 2009 (30.0% vs 9.9%). Among these, the CD4 count distribution showed a year by year shift to higher CD4 counts. In 2013, over 75% of ART-naïve TB patients still had a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3. ART initiation among ART-naive patients increased from 37.0 to 77.7% and TB case fatality declined from 7.4 to 5.2% (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis a decrease in TB mortality was most strongly associated with CD4 count (Adjusted HR 0.82 per increase of 50 cells/mm3, 95% CI: 0.81–0.83, p < 001) and the initiation of ART during TB treatment (Adjusted HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.35–0.42, p < 0.001). Conclusion Comprehensive changes in the ART and TB treatment programmes resulted in incremental increases in ART coverage for HIV-positive TB patients and a subsequent decrease in TB case fatality due to increased ART uptake in HIV-positive ART-naïve patients. However TB still remained a major presenting opportunistic infection with the majority of cases occurring at low CD4 counts.
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    HIV-associated tuberculosis: relationship between disease severity and the sensitivity of new sputum-based and urine-based diagnostic assays
    (BioMed Central Ltd, 2013) Lawn, Stephen; Kerkhoff, Andrew; Vogt, Monica; Wood, Robin
    BACKGROUND: Reducing mortality from HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) requires diagnostic tools that are rapid and have high sensitivity among patients with poor prognosis. We determined the relationship between disease severity and the sensitivity of new sputum-based and urine-based diagnostic assays. METHODS: Consecutive ambulatory patients enrolling for antiretroviral treatment in South Africa were screened for TB regardless of symptoms using diagnostic assays prospectively applied to sputum (fluorescence smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF and liquid culture (reference standard)) and retrospectively applied to stored urine samples (Determine TB-LAM and Xpert MTB/RIF). Assay sensitivities were calculated stratified according to pre-defined indices of disease severity: CD4 count, symptom intensity, serum C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin concentration and vital status at 90 days. RESULTS: Sputum culture-positive TB was diagnosed in 15% (89/602) of patients screened and data from 86 patients were analyzed (median CD4 count, 131 cells/muL) including 6 (7%) who died. The sensitivity of sputum microscopy was 26.7% overall and varied relatively little with disease severity. In marked contrast, the sensitivities of urine-based and sputum-based diagnosis using Determine TB-LAM and Xpert MTB/RIF assays were substantially greater in sub-groups with poorer prognosis. Rapid diagnosis from sputum and/or urine samples was possible in >80% of patients in sub-groups with poor prognosis as defined by either CD4 counts <100 cells/muL, advanced symptoms, CRP concentrations >200 mg/L or hemoglobin <8.0 g/dl. Retrospective testing of urine samples with Determine TB-LAM correctly identified all those with TB who died. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivities of Xpert MTB/RIF and Determine TB-LAM for HIV-associated TB were highest among HIV-infected patients with the most advanced disease and poorest prognostic characteristics. These data provide strong justification for large-scale intervention studies that assess the impact on survival of screening using these new sputum-based and urine-based diagnostic approaches.
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    Impact of HIV on admissions and deaths in a tuberculosis hospital - recommendations for admission and discharge criteria
    (Health and Medical Publishing Group, 2003) Thanassi, W; Post, F A; Shean, K; Bekker, L G; Maartens, G
    Mortality and HIV prevalence rose concordantly at Brooklyn Chest Hospital from 1998 to 2001. Death and unconfirmed tuberculosis (TB) (15% of adult admissions in a sample from 2000) were associated with HIV seropositivity. Excluding unconfirmed TB and shortening length of stay would increase the number of patients able to benefit from hospitalisation.
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    Independent predictors of tuberculosis mortality in a high HIV prevalence setting: a retrospective cohort study
    (2015) Pepper, Dominique J; Schomaker, Michael; Wilkinson, Robert J; de Azevedo, Virginia; Maartens, Gary
    BackgroundIdentifying those at increased risk of death during TB treatment is a priority in resource-constrained settings. We performed this study to determine predictors of mortality during TB treatment.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of a TB surveillance population in a high HIV prevalence area that was recorded in ETR.net (Electronic Tuberculosis Register). Adult TB cases initiated TB treatment from 2007 through 2009 in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for death (after multiple imputations for missing data). Model selection was performed using Akaike’s Information Criterion to obtain the most relevant predictors of death.ResultsOf 16,209 adult TB cases, 851 (5.3%) died during TB treatment. In all TB cases, advancing age, co-infection with HIV, a prior history of TB and the presence of both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. In HIV-infected TB cases, advancing age and female gender were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. Increasing CD4 counts and antiretroviral treatment during TB treatment were protective against death. In HIV-uninfected TB cases, advancing age was independently associated with death, whereas smear-positive disease was protective.ConclusionWe identified several independent predictors of death during TB treatment in resource-constrained settings. Our findings inform resource-constrained settings about certain subgroups of TB patients that should be targeted to improve mortality during TB treatment.
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    Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000
    (2003) Bradshaw, Debbie; Groenewald, Pam; Laubscher, Ria; Nannan, Nadine; Nojilana, Beatrice; Norman, Rosana; Pieterse, Desiréé; Schneider, Michelle; Bourne, David E; Ian M Timæus; Dorrington, Rob; Johnson, Leigh
    Background. This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. Method. Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model. The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLLestimates. Results. The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea. HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders. The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010 Conclusion. This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS. Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately
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    Initiating patients on antiretroviral therapy at CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/µl is associated with improved treatment outcomes in South Africa
    (Wolters Kluwer Health, 2010) Zeinecker, Jennifer; Orrell, Catherine; Wood, Robin
    Observational cohort study. Methods Patients presenting to primary care clinics with CD4 cell counts <350 cells/mm3 were randomized to either doctor- or nurse-managed HIV care and followed for at least two years after ART initiation. Clinical and laboratory outcomes were compared by baseline CD4 count. Results 812 patients were followed for a median of 27.5 months and 36% initiated with a CD4 count >200. While 10% of patients failed virologically (VF), the risk was nearly double among those with a CD4 ≤200 vs. >200 (12.2% vs. 6.8%). 21 deaths occurred, with a five-fold increased risk for the low CD4 group (3.7% vs. 0.7%). After adjustment, those with a CD4 count ≤200 had twice the risk of death/VF (HR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1–3.3) and twice the risk of incident tuberculosis (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 0.89–4.04) as those >200. Those with either a CD4 ≤200 (HR 2.1; 1.2–3.8) or a WHO IV condition (HR 2.9; 0.93–8.8) alone had a two to three-fold increased risk of death/VF vs. those with neither, but those with both conditions had a 4-fold increased risk (HR 3.9; 95% CI: 1.9–8.1). We observed some increased loss to follow-up among those initiating <200 (HR 0.79; 95% CI: 0.50–1.25). Conclusions Patients initiating ART with higher CD4 counts had reduced mortality, tuberculosis and less virologic failure than those initiated at lower CD4 counts. Our data support increasing CD4 count eligibility criteria for ART initiation.
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    Mortality in patients treated for tuberculous pericarditis in sub-Saharan Africa.
    (Health & Medical Publishing Group, 2008) Mayosi, Bongani M; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Ntsekhe, Mpiko; Gumedze, Freedom; Volmink Jimmy A; Maartens, Gary; Aje, Akinyemi; Thomas, Baby M; Thomas, Kandathil M; Awotedu, Abolade A; Bongani, Thembela; Mntla, Phindile; Maritz, Frans; Blackett, Kathleen Ngu; Nkouonlack, Duquesne C; Burch, Vanessa C; Rebe, Kevin; Parrish, Andy; Sliwa, Karen; Vezi, Brian Z; Alam, Nowshad; Brown, Basil G; Gould, Trevor; Visser, Tim; Magula, Nombulelo P; Commerford, Patrick J
    Tuberculous pericarditis is one of the most severe forms of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, causing death or disability in a substantial proportion of affected people.1,2 In Africa, the incidence of tuberculous pericarditis is rising as a result of the HIV epidemic.3 The effect of HIV infection on survival in patients with tuberculous pericarditis is unknown.2,4 Whereas some investigators have suggested that HIV-infected patients with tuberculous pericarditis have a similar outcome to non-infected cases,5 others have shown that there may be an increase in mortality in HIV associated with tuberculous pericarditis.2,6,7 We established a prospective observational study, the Investigation of the Management of Pericarditis in Africa (IMPI Africa) registry, to obtain current information on the diagnosis, management and outcome of patients with presumed tuberculous pericarditis living in sub-Saharan Africa, where the burden of HIV infection is the greatest in the world.4,8-10 In this paper, we report the mortality rate and its predictors during the 6 months of antituberculosis treatment among patients enrolled in the regist
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    Mortality in Patients with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: A Collaborative Analysis of Prospective Studies
    (2014) Boulle, Andrew; Schomaker, Michael; May, Margaret T; Hogg, Robert S; Shepherd, Bryan E; Monge, Susana; Keiser, Olivia; Lampe, Fiona C; Giddy, Janet; Ndirangu, James; Garone, Daniela; Fox, Matthew; Ingle, Suzanne M; Reiss, Peter; Dabis, François; Costagliola, Dominique; Castagna, Antonella; Ehren, Kathrin; Campbell, Colin; Gill, M John; Saag, Michael; Justice, Amy C; Guest, Jodie; Crane, Heidi M; Egger, Matthias; Sterne, Jonathan A C
    High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America.
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    Mortality in South Africa: Socio-economic profile and association with self-reported health
    (Development Southern Africa, 2015-05-28) Ardington, Cally; Gasealahwe, Boingotlo
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    Precarious transition: a mortality study of South African ex-miners
    (BioMed Central, 2018-07-11) Bloch, Kim; Johnson, Leigh F; Nkosi, Mlindeli; Ehrlich, Rodney
    Background Despite their burden of a triple epidemic of silicosis, tuberculosis and HIV infection, little is known about the mortality experience of miners from the South African mining industry once they leave employment. Such information is important because of the size and dispersion of this population across a number of countries and the progressive nature of these diseases. Methods This study included 306,297 South African miners who left the industry during 2001–2013. The study aimed to calculate crude and standardised mortality rates, identify secular trends in mortality and model demographic and occupational risk factors for mortality. Results Crude mortality rates peaked in the first year after exit (32.8/1000 person-years), decreasing with each year from exit. Overall mortality was 20% higher than in the general population. Adjusted annual mortality halved over the 12 year period. Mortality predictors were being a black miner [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.15–3.46]; underground work (aHR 1.33; 95% CI 1.28–1.39); and gold aHR 1.15 (95% CI 1.12–1.19) or multiple commodity employment (aHR 1.15; 95% CI 1.11–1.19). Conclusions This is the first long-term mortality assessment in the large ex-miner population from the South African mining industry. Mortality patterns follow that of the national HIV-tuberculosis epidemic and antiretroviral treatment availability. However, ex-miners have further elevated mortality and a very high mortality risk in the year after leaving the workforce. Coordinated action between the mining industry, governments and non-governmental organisations is needed to reduce the impact of this precarious transition.
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    The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study
    (BioMed Central Ltd, 2015) Kerkhoff, Andrew; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen
    BACKGROUND: Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple time-updated haemoglobin measurements. METHODS: Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART for up to 8years in a community-based cohort were analysed. Time-updated haemoglobin concentrations, CD4 counts and HIV viral loads were recorded, and TB diagnoses and deaths from all causes were ascertained. Anaemia severity was classified using World Health Organization criteria. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to identify independent predictors of incident TB and mortality, respectively. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.0years (IQR, 2.5-5.8) of 1,521 patients, 476 cases of incident TB and 192 deaths occurred during 6,459 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. TB incidence rates were strongly associated with time-updated anaemia severity; those without anaemia had a rate of 4.4 (95%CI, 3.8-5.1) cases/100 PYs compared to 10.0 (95%CI, 8.3-12.1), 26.6 (95%CI, 22.5-31.7) and 87.8 (95%CI, 57.0-138.2) cases/100 PYs in those with mild, moderate and severe anaemia, respectively. Similarly, mortality rates in those with no anaemia or mild, moderate and severe time-updated anaemia were 1.1 (95%CI, 0.8-1.5), 3.5 (95%CI, 2.7-4.8), 11.8 (95%CI, 9.5-14.8) and 28.2 (95%CI, 16.5-51.5) cases/100 PYs, respectively. Moderate and severe anaemia (time-updated) during ART were the strongest independent predictors for incident TB (adjusted IRR=3.8 [95%CI, 3.0-4.8] and 8.2 [95%CI, 5.3-12.7], respectively) and for mortality (adjusted IRR=6.0 [95%CI, 3.9-9.2] and adjusted IRR=8.0 [95%CI, 3.9-16.4], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing severity of anaemia was associated with exceptionally high rates of both incident TB and mortality during long-term ART. Patients receiving ART who have moderate or severe anaemia should be prioritized for TB screening using microbiological assays and may require adjunctive clinical interventions.
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    Prevention of diseases after menopause
    (2014) Lobo, R A; Davis, S R; de Villiers, T J; Gompel, A; Henderson, V W; Hodis, H N; Lumsden, M A; Mack, W J; Shapiro, S; Baber, R J
    AbstractWomen may expect to spend more than a third of their lives after menopause. Beginning in the sixth decade, many chronic diseases will begin to emerge, which will affect both the quality and quantity of a woman's life. Thus, the onset of menopause heralds an opportunity for prevention strategies to improve the quality of life and enhance longevity. Obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, cognitive decline, dementia and depression, and cancer are the major diseases of concern. Prevention strategies at menopause have to begin with screening and careful assessment for risk factors, which should also include molecular and genetic diagnostics, as these become available. Identification of certain risks will then allow directed therapy. Evidence-based prevention for the diseases noted above include lifestyle management, cessation of smoking, curtailing excessive alcohol consumption, a healthy diet and moderate exercise, as well as mentally stimula...
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    Prognostic indicators in the World Health Organization’s algorithm for seriously ill HIV-infected inpatients with suspected tuberculosis
    (BioMed Central, 2018-02-12) Griesel, Rulan; Stewart, Annemie; van der Plas, Helen; Sikhondze, Welile; Mendelson, Marc; Maartens, Gary
    Background: Criteria for the 2007 WHO algorithm for diagnosing tuberculosis among HIV-infected seriously ill patients are the presence of one or more danger signs (respiratory rate > 30/min, heart rate > 120/min, temperature > 39 °C, and being unable to walk unaided) and cough ≥ 14 days. Determining predictors of poor outcomes among HIV-infected inpatients presenting with WHO danger signs could result in improved treatment and diagnostic algorithms. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of inpatients presenting with any duration of cough and WHO danger signs to two regional hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality up to 56 days post-discharge, and the secondary outcome a composite of any one of: hospital admission for > 7 days, died in hospital, transfer to a tertiary level or tuberculosis hospital. We frst assessed the WHO danger signs as predictors of poor outcomes, then assessed the added value of other variables selected a priori for their ability to predict mortality in common respiratory opportunistic infections (CD4 count, body mass index (BMI), being on antiretroviral therapy (ART), hypotension, and confusion) by comparing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of the two multivariate models. Results: 484 participants were enrolled, median age 36, 66% women, 53% had tuberculosis confrmed on culture. The 56-day mortality was 13.2%. Inability to walk unaided, low BMI, low CD4 count, and being on ART were independently associated with poor outcomes. The multivariate model of the WHO danger signs showed a ROC AUC of 0.649 (95% CI 0.582–0.717) for predicting 56-day mortality, which improved to ROC AUC of 0.740 (95% CI 0.681–0.800; p = 0.004 for comparison between the two ROC AUCs) with the multivariate model including the a priori selected variables. Findings were similar in sub-analyses of participants with culture-positive tuberculosis and with cough duration ≥ 14 days. Conclusion: The study design prevented a rigorous evaluation of the prognostic value of the WHO danger signs. Our prognostic model could result in improved algorithms, but needs to be validated.
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    Open Access
    Rapid scale-up of A community-based HIV treatment service: Programme performance over 3 consecutive years in Guguletu, South Africa
    (2006) Bekker, Linda-Gail; Myer, Landon; Orrell, Catherine; Lawn, Steve; Wood, Robin
    Background. Despite rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa there are few longitudinal data describing programme performance during rapid scale-up. Methods. We compared mortality, viral suppression and programme retention in 3 consecutive years of a public sector community-based ART clinic in a South African township. Data were collected prospectively from establishment of services in October 2002 to the censoring date in September 2005. Viral load and CD4 counts were monitored at 4-monthly intervals. Community-based counsellors provided adherence and programme support. Results. During the study period 1 139 ART-naïve patients received ART (161, 280 and 698 in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd years respectively). The median CD4 cell counts were 84 cells/μl (interquartile range (IQR) 42 - 139), 89 cells/μl (IQR 490 - 149), and 110 cells/μl (IQR 55 - 172), and the proportions of patients with World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stages 3 and 4 were 90%, 79% and 76% in each sequential year respectively. The number of counsellors increased from 6 to 28 and the median number of clients allocated to each counsellor increased from 13 to 33. The overall loss to follow-up was 2.9%. At the date of censoring, the Kaplan-Meier estimates of the proportion of patients still on the programme were 82%, 86% and 91%, and the proportion who were virally suppressed (< 400 copies/ml) were 100%, 92% and 98% for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 cohorts respectively. Conclusions. While further operational research is required into optimal models of care in different populations across sub-Saharan Africa, these results demonstrate that a single community-based public sector ART clinic can extend care to over 1 000 patients in an urban setting without compromising programme performance.