Browsing by Subject "Long Term Mitigation Scenarios"

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    Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
    (University of Cape Town. Energy Research Centre, 2007) Pauw, Kalie
    The objective of this analysis is to develop a better understanding of the likely impact that various mitigation options may have on the economy in terms of GDP, employment and household welfare. As noted in the introduction, outcomes of three mitigation scenarios, Start Now, Scale Up and Use the Market, are evaluated. These mitigation scenarios are combinations of different degrees of energy efficiency that can be achieved, structural shifts in energy output mix and, in the case of the latter scenario, economic instruments used to reduce emissions. Results are compared in comparative static fashion against a ‘business as usual’ reference case called growth without constraints (GWC). This remains a scenario analysis, and by no means can we claim that results are necessarily an accurate reflection of the true outcome. Given the long time horizon and the multitude of economic variables and parameters that may change over time and impact on each other, not to mention factors external to the South Africa economy that cannot be controlled, it is unwise to have too much confidence in results. However, the exercise remains useful. We are upfront about the limitations, the assumptions and the methods used to arrive at results, and given these, the scenario analysis provides a useful starting point for policy discussions around possible outcomes under various different mitigation scenarios for South Africa.
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    Energy emissions: a modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
    Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
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    Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in key South African sectors: an input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process.
    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, 2007) Midgley, G; Chapman, R; Mukheibir, P; Tadross, M; Hewitson, B; Wand, S; Schulze, R; Lumsden, T; Horan, M; Warburton, M; Kgope, B; Mantlana, B; Knowles, A; Abayomi, A; Ziervogel, G; Cullis, R; Theron, A
    Ten free-standing chapters make up this report, and this Executive Summary and supporting Synthesis Report serve to draw together the main findings in both an abbreviated and an extended and illustrated format that focuses on main findings, but also adds a level of detail for the purpose of communicating the key results, and the uncertainties associated with them, for the benefit of a policy maker. The chapters that make up this report are compiled as separate documents as follows. These are generally reviews of the literature available, but in some cases comprise new work that has been carried out to provide information in an area that is lacking an assessment.
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    Long Term Mitigation Scenarios: Strategic Options for South Africa
    (Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, 2007) Scenario Building Team
    The focus of this document is mitigation: if South Africa takes the decision to mitigate, then this document addresses how to determine the options, the emissions reductions achieved by these options, and the attendant costs of each option. How, then, is South Africa to grow and develop in order to reduce poverty, while at the same time retooling its economy in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions?
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    Modelling the impact of CO2 taxes in combination with the Long Term Mitigations Scenarios on Emissions in South Africa using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model
    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2008) Kearney, Marna
    A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyse the impact on the economy of taxes on CO2 emissions combined with the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios. A sales tax is used to model the impact of a CO2 tax. The mitigation scenarios modelled include structural shifts (for example switching from coal-fired electricity plants to nuclear power stations), changes in energy efficiency and changes in investment required. The extent of the structural shifts, changes in energy efficiency and investment required differs from scenario to scenario. The results for the mitigation scenarios indicate that the mitigation scenarios have a positive impact on GDP when investment is large. Although economic activity initially declines due to improved energy efficiency, it is followed by a period of economic expansion as lower prices increases output in most industries – this is especially the case when it is combined with higher investment. When CO2 taxes are levied the economic impact is again positive if this is combined with either tax relief or reinvestment of the additional tax revenue. The scenarios have varied impact on labour, in general employment for semi- and unskilled labour rise if investment is higher. In most scenarios the demand for energy declines, especially for coal and petroleum. However, the demand for electricity increases if investment rises significantly. When the mitigation scenarios is combined with a CO2 tax the results indicate that the CO2 tax is effective in reducing output of CO2 producing industries as it changes the relative price of the commodities produced by these industries. However, the sales tax is distortionary as it introduces price wedges in the economy while consumers may end up paying large portions of the tax. A CO2 tax may not be the most appropriate tool to achieve the desired results considering the economic development objectives of South Africa. However, when combined with the LTMS framework its negative impact is negated by higher investment and GDP growth.