Browsing by Subject "Interannual variation"

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    CMIP5 Model Intercomparison of Freshwater Budget and Circulation in the North Atlantic
    (2014) Deshayes, Julie; Curry, Ruth; Msadek, Rym
    ABSTRACT The subpolar North Atlantic is a center of variability of ocean properties, wind stress curl, and air–sea exchanges. Observations and hindcast simulations suggest that from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre became fresher while the gyre and meridional circulations intensified. This is opposite to the relationship of freshening causing a weakened circulation, most often reproduced by climate models. The authors hypothesize that both these configurations exist but dominate on different time scales: a fresher subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at interannual frequencies (configuration A), and a saltier subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at longer periods (configuration B). Rather than going into the detail of the mechanisms sustaining each configuration, the authors’ objective is to identify which configuration dominates and to test whether this depends on frequency, in preindustrial control runs of five climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To this end, the authors have developed a novel intercomparison method that enables analysis of freshwater budget and circulation changes in a physical perspective that overcomes model specificities. Lag correlations and a cross-spectral analysis between freshwater content changes and circulation indices validate the authors’ hypothesis, as configuration A is only visible at interannual frequencies while configuration B is mostly visible at decadal and longer periods, suggesting that the driving role of salinity on the circulation depends on frequency. Overall, this analysis underscores the large differences among state-of-the-art climate models in their representations of the North Atlantic freshwater budget.
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    Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Southern African Summer Rainfall
    (2007) Pohl, B; Richard, Y; Fauchereau, N
    Composite maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) cycle show marked intraseasonal fluctuations over southern Africa (south of 15°S). Large-scale convective clusters are seen to propagate eastward and then northward over the continent, mainly between 10° and 20°S. The corresponding response of the rainfall field presents the alternation, over the cycle, of dry and humid phases, which are both significant. Moisture flux anomalies indicate an intraseasonal modulation of the midtropospheric easterly flow over the Congo basin at 700 hPa; these fluctuations are coupled to meridional flux anomalies that extend from the tropical to the subtropical austral latitudes, and favor occurrences of wet or dry conditions over the domain. Though statistically significant, the influence of the MJO on southern Africa is however not homogeneous spatially, and only the tropical areas exhibit sharp periodicities in the 30-60-day period range. The OLR dipole observed in previous studies at the interannual and synoptic time scales between the hinterland parts of southern Africa and the southwestern Indian Ocean in the north of Madagascar is investigated next, as it also shows strong fluctuations at the intraseasonal time scale. The study points out that the dipole is partly influenced by the MJO, though the strongest periodicities are found for slightly longer periods (35-80 days) than those typically associated with the oscillation. The forcing of the MJO on the OLR dipole, though significant, remains thus partial.