Browsing by Subject "Economic Impact"

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    AIDS Growth and Distribution in South Africa
    (2002) Nattrass, Nicoli
    This paper discusses recent research into the economic impact of AIDS in South Africa. It focuses on demographic and macroeconomic modelling and on firm-level impact studies. While the overall picture is murky, certain trends and findings are indicative of a likely increase in inequality. Relatively skilled workers could benefit from greater employment, higher wages, a larger supply of products produced for their niche markets, and may also live longer as it becomes economically viable for firms to provide anti-retroviral medication. The relatively unskilled and unemployed will probably experience declining income, falling consumer welfare, and suffer greater morbidity and mortality from AIDS. The size of the pie may shrink as a result of AIDS, but employed people - and especially the skilled amongst them - will enjoy a growing share.
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    Out-migration in the context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: evidence from the Free State province
    (2003) Booysen, Frederik
    This paper investigates the characteristics and determinants of out-migration in the context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, using data from a panel designed to investigate the household impact of the epidemic. Departure models show that individual attributes, notably age and gender, play an important role in explaining out-migration from households that have not experienced morbidity or mortality. In affected households, a number of household-level variables, notably the gender of the household head, place of residence, family structure, the dependency ratio, human capital and household size, feature as important determinants of out-migration. Health shocks in the form of increased mortality, which characterises the impact of the epidemic, independently explain part of observed differences in out-migration from affected households, the out-migration of ill persons from affected households, and the out-migration of orphaned children from affected households. Thus, migration represents an important strategy for poorer households having to cope with the HIV/AIDS epidemic, both as an economic survival strategy and as a social strategy aimed at accessing support from the extended family.