Browsing by Subject "Commerce"
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- ItemOpen AccessAn assessment and comparison of bankruptcy prediction models in forecasting the financial distress of JSE-listed companies over a twenty-year period (2000 to 2020)(2023) Hendricks, Leon; Pitt, LucianThis study aimed to test the reliability of various models in predicting the failure of JSE-listed companies. Spanning a period of twenty years between the years 2000 and 2020, a sample of 156 companies was considered, with variables extending across financial information, non- financial information, as well as macroeconomic indicators. The timespan considered for the assessment is particularly significant considering that it encompasses two periods of catastrophic negative market downturns. This includes the 2008 financial crisis and the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Furthermore, the introduction of new international accounting standards in the latter part of this period, implemented to address issues of risk and transparency in financial reporting, had a marked impact on accounting ratios. Accounting ratios have traditionally been used as inputs in distress prediction models. Considering this context, a study of the comparative performance of various models was undertaken, with the model set including multiple discriminant analysis, logit, probit, recursive partitioning and non-financial models. What was particularly noteworthy in this research was the inclusion of models developed by South African researchers in the model set. In respect of the multiple discriminant analysis, logit and probit models, the results demonstrated a predictive accuracy rate below those surfaced in previous studies, with accuracy rates averaging between 55% and 70%. These models were cumbered predominantly by Type I errors. The application of a model which included both financial and non-financial variables demonstrated more favourable results at an accuracy rate of 73%. The recursive partitioning model, however, which comprehended a high ratio of cashflow- related variables, yielded the highest accuracy, at 83%. The model, with its cash focus and its unique approach of considering the cumulative impact of variables instead of basing the predictive outcomes on the performance of a single financial year, tended not to fall prey to the error-types prevalent in the other models in the model set. The output of this research affirmed the importance of the traditional and rudimentary marker between distressed and non-distressed firms. That is, the abundance of cash or the lack thereof is the key differentiating mark between failure and success. The research also highlighted the importance of considering the cumulative impact of variables when forecasting the failure or success of companies, instead of basing predictive outcomes on the performance of a single period. Furthermore, this research confirmed what had been established in previous studies. That is, the size of the firm is a significant predictor of bankruptcy. This study also attempted to reassess the outcome of distress prediction models, by adjusting for the impact of changes in accounting. The impact on the predictive accuracy of the models by normalising for accounting changes, however, was inconclusive. This was mainly due to the extent of Type I errors across the multiple discriminant analysis, logit and probit models, in conjunction with the low prevalence of failed companies towards the latter part of the period considered in this research when changes in accounting standards were introduced. Further research is required in this area to understand the impact of accounting changes on traditional distress prediction models and potentially to revise these distress models, in order to yield higher predictive accuracies.
- ItemOpen AccessAn Assessment of Parents' Book-sharing Quality, Children's Level of Engagement, and the Effects on Children's Verbal Exchanges(2023) Kaleebu, Nasiib; Chapman, SarahA process evaluation study was conducted for the Book-sharing for Families Programme, implemented by Living Hope in South Africa. Living Hope is a faith-based organisation that was established in the year 2000 with a vision of reaching people for Christ, bringing hope, and breaking the despair of poverty and disease. The Book-sharing for Families Programme aimsto strengthen capacity of parents and caregivers to foster positive relationships and provide enriching environment for their children that enable them grow and develop pre-literacy skills (including language development, concentration development, and book handling skills) that are needed for children to be ready to acquire reading when they go to school. The programme targets parents of low socioeconomic status and children aged 30 to 60 months, and it is implemented using a seven-week curriculum. The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the extent to which the programme achieved its short-term outcomes (effect on children's verbal exchange) and to gain a deeper understanding of how well the programme was implemented. Children's verbal exchange was assessed before and after the end of the programme using the Naturalistic Assessment of Verbal Exchanges tool, and the children's level of orientation to book-sharing was assessed using the Children Orientation to Booksharing (COB) rating scale. This was supplemented by data collected through interviews with the programme participants. Whereas the findings of the evaluation revealed that the programme did not have a statistically significant affect on children's verbal exchange, the programme had positive effects on the participants. The book-sharing interactions deepened children's orientation to shared reading, which according to the literature reviewed impacts on other child's development domains, including language and vocabulary acquisition. This study developed a logic model to guide the development and evaluation of similar programmes. The study introduced COB as a new tool which Living Hope had not previously used to supplement the existing tools and assist in examining the level of children's interest, engagement, and attention to book-sharing activities
- ItemOpen AccessAn exploration of the impact of development intervention programmes on poverty: a case study(2004) Matemba, Lawrence; April, Kurt[page 139,140,166 are missing] Challenges that development intervention programmes face do not only pertain to poor programme design, implementation, management and evaluation, but more importantly the underlying mindset assumptions that inform them lack the necessary alignment with the local contextual mindset and worldview in which programmes themselves are undertaken. Put differently, development is not a purely economic, technological or political problem. Its success is frequently dependent on an understanding of the society in which it is to take place, knowledge of the social and cultural factors that condition the community's responsiveness to developmental change, and the ability to obtain willing cooperation of the beneficiaries involved (Amon, 1991). While existing development intervention programme designs and evaluation approaches have proved extremely powerful in explicating: (a) how programmes work (Asian Development Bank, 1998), (b) what impact they have (Barker, 2000), and (c) why they work as they do (Kruse, Kyllonen, Ojanpera, Riddell, and Vielajus, 1997), they are beginning to reveal the limits of their applicability, especially in rural and semi-rural settings. Less effort has been focused on the worldview and mindset assumptions that underlie the design and implementation of these programmes, especially their alignment with those of the community in which they are implemented. The aim of this dissertation was to explore and develop insights relating to development intervention programmes from a traditional and Western mindset, when directly transposed in a developing world context - thereby highlighting the gaps and inefficiencies of a non-contextualised approach. In particular, the underlying traditional mindset assumptions under consideration are analysed in their developmental and historical setting, problems are pointed out and opportunities are identified. In addition, high level goals are then identified and refined to address such problems and meet the opportunities. Requirements are then elaborated upon to meet these goals. While conducting this research, oral sources were an invaluable source of information. Conducting the interviews was both intellectually stimulating and academically challenging. The practical aspect of the interviews was fascinating and the relationship I developed with my interviewees during this period, most of whom I had known while doing pastoral work at St. Vincent's Catholic Parish between 1992 and 1993, and in 1996 will be cherished forever.
- ItemOpen AccessAn investigation into unifying early warning prediction models(2023) Grieve, Jason; Singh-Sewpersadh, NavithaForecasting financial distress has been regarded as a serious and significant problem, and if not signalled in time, has catastrophic ramifications on worldwide economies. Financial distress models are in existence and have been tested with varying results of success. However, there are varying definitions of financial distress which have contributed to the in-cohesiveness of financial distress literature where users have a limited ability to know what condition of financial distress is being forecast. Following a comprehensive literature review, it was found that financial distress models (Altman, 1968; Beaver, 1966; Gupta, 1983; Ohlson, 1980; Taffler, 1983; Zmijewski, 1984) have not been unified into an early warning signal (EWS) framework according to the specific financial distress conditions they have abilities to predict. Findings also found that risk (Beneish, 1999; Schilit, 2003) and earnings management measures (Sloan, 1996) play a significant role in financial distress forecasting but have also yet to be unified into an EWS framework. This study aims to unify financial distress, risk prediction and earnings management measurements into an EWS framework developed by Tavlin et al. (1989) to enable users the ability to identify the type of EWSs predicted and contributing reasons reducing the fragmentation of the extant literature. The investigation period of the study was for six years (2016 to 2021) using paired sampling methodology with a final sample of 72 delisted and 72 listed companies from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study employed descriptive analysis to interrogate the results. The results indicated that financial distress models (Altman, 1968; Beaver, 1966; Gupta, 1983; Taffler, 1983; Zmijewski, 1984) and risk and earnings management measures (Beneish, 1999; Schilit, 2003; Sloan, 1996) could be unified into an EWS framework. Key words: bankruptcy prediction; credit risk; probability of default (PD); early warning signals; financial distress, JSE; risk; earnings management
- ItemOpen AccessAn outcome evaluation of the Work 4 Progress Programme for unemployed youths(2023) Pophiwa, Pamela; Duffy, CarrenThis evaluation assessed whether the Work 4 Progress programme, a youth employment programme implemented by Action Volunteers Africa achieved its intended short-term and long-term outcomes. The programme is designed to improve the employability of young people aged between 18 to 25 years who are not in employment, education or training (NEET), by providing them with work opportunities, life coaching and career guidance. The evaluation used a mixed-method exploratory sequential design to collect data. To measure the outcomes of the programme, 29 alumni completed an online survey designed to assess their attainment of the programme outcomes namely: work-related skills and competencies; personal growth and career orientation. Eight participants also took part in semi-structured face-to-face interviews with the evaluator. The programme's Executive Director was also interviewed to promote triangulation of the results. Results of the analysis of the survey data revealed that the Work 4 Progress programme is likely to improve the employability of youths and the participants were overall satisfied with the experience. Results from the analysis of interview data revealed three overall themes. The emerging themes were: 1) Understanding backgrounds, 2) Career guidance is crucial and useful and 3) Programme praxis and knowledge in the real world. Overall, the informants felt that the programme equipped them with the skills and competencies needed in the world of work. The triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative results revealed both the economic and social benefits of engaging in the Work 4 Progress programme. The findings of this evaluation reinforce the importance of multi-component interventions as essential in improving the employment outcomes of youths with socio-economic disadvantages.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of Household Energy Poverty on Human Development Outcomes in South Africa, Using the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS)(2023) Gebers, Sophie; Thiam, DjibyThiamDespite progress in post-Apartheid South Africa's electrification rates, especially in the country's rural areas, widespread energy poverty persists at the household level. To understand the dynamics of energy poverty at the micro-level, this dissertation examines how two different measures of energy poverty – namely, the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and the Ten-Percent Threshold measure (TPT) – affect human development outcomes in the domains of health, labour market outcomes and education-related outcomes. The MEPI is constructed using a range of dimensions relating to access to modern energy services captured in a nationally representative panel dataset, the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS). I also construct the TPT using variables pertaining to household energy expenditure and income. Although there were improvements from 2008 to 2017, it was found that multi- dimensional energy poverty is still prevalent in South African households, especially in rural and low-income households. The dissertation then turns to regression methods to establish whether there is an effect between energy poverty and human outcome indicators. I run both OLS and FE estimation strategies. However, empirical tests and prior literature points to the issue of potential endogeneity within the energy poverty variable. I utilize district-level electricity price and the percentage of households in the district using biomass as a fuel source as instrumental variables to correct for the endogeneity issue. Using a 2SLS regression model, the findings reflect that multidimensional energy poverty does indeed have adverse consequences for an adult individual's health outcomes – both subjective and objective measures. The results also point to the negative effect of household energy poverty on an individual's likelihood to participate in the labour force and be in employment. These results are all highly significant. Lastly, I establish that multidimensional energy poverty is associated with lower number of school years and higher likelihoods of missing a school day. I also show that energy poverty has a gendered effect, with women in the household often experiencing worse outcomes. The TPT is used in a sensitivity analysis. Overall, the results from the investigation can assist in advising policymakers on how access to modern, clean energy sources can help individuals' development outcomes in South Africa. Keywords: energy poverty, development outcomes, instrumental variable.
- ItemOpen AccessAn application of personal construct theory to a study of retail sales person effectiveness(1996) Vigar, Deborah Ann; Birt, MartinThe term effectiveness is used extensively to describe organisations, groups and individuals. The fact that some organisations, groups and individuals are measurably more effective than others is a basic assumption of economic, organisation and behavioural theory. However, despite this frequent use, there is very little agreement amongst the users, both academic and business, as to what exactly 'effectiveness' means. The dictionary definition of 'effective' is 'capable of producing the desired result', however, the definition used in practice appears to depend on the mindset or reference point of the researcher. Most researchers reference point is management and therefore the definition of effectiveness is management's. It is possible that the definitions held by the job holders themselves, and by customers with whom they deal, are different from that of management. There is even less agreement on how effectiveness of an organisation or individual should be measured, i.e. what criteria should be used to measure effectiveness. More specific to the current study is sales person effectiveness research. There has been a large amount of research on effectiveness of sales people but it has tended to focus on industrial salespeople rather than retail salespeople. The research that has focused on retail sales people has suffered from several problems. The first relates to the problems with research involving effectiveness generally. The researchers rarely explain what they mean by effectiveness or what criteria they use to measure effectiveness. Much of this research also suffers methodologically, from the epistemological problem of being either too subjective or too objective. This is a problem that has plagued research in the social sciences throughout the subject's history. The methodologies used to research behaviour have been problematic in that they either adopt the methodologies of the natural sciences.in an attempt to quantify the phenomenon under study, or they use assumptions and methodologies that are subjective and prone to researcher or experimental bias. George Kelly's Personal Construct Theory claims to bridge this epistemological divide. The methodology allows for the indepth study of individuals but without bias from the researcher. By using the Repertory Grid technique developed by Kelly for the measurement of personal constructs, the results can be quantified, thus also satisfying the objectivist requirements. It is for this reason that Personal Construct Theory and the Repertory Grid technique are used in the current research. This research aims to discover whether the groups involved in the retail arena (i.e. top managers, branch manageresses, sales people and customers) have similar views of what constitutes sales person effectiveness.
- ItemOpen AccessArtificial Intelligence Affordances for Organisational Change: Perspectives from South African Artificial Intelligence Practitioners(2024) Achmat, Luqman; Brown, IrwinArtificial intelligence (AI) technologies have been in use for several decades, but have seen substantial growth and commercialisation in the last decade, largely due to the available and growing ubiquitous access to more affordable computing resources. While some organisations have adopted these technologies fairly quickly, others grapple with understanding how these technologies would strategically benefit the organisation. The purpose of this research is to address this gap by theorising how AI could be positioned to influence strategic organisational change. It does so by delineating the AI features and drawing on affordance theory to explicitly identify the affordances, the types of organisational change and the constraining conditions under which such AI-related affordances may influence organisational change. This qualitative study adopts an interpretive epistemology, while lending itself towards a constructivist ontology. By adopting a qualitative interview strategy for data collection, and a thematic analysis to analyse the data, this study abductively theorises how AI affords organisational change from the perspective of the AI practitioner. It uses the Trajectory of Affordances as the underpinning lens to explore this phenomenon. Eight key affordances are identified: (i) Analysing risk, (ii) analysing needs, (iii) forecasting, (iv) assessing efficiency and effectiveness, (v) providing prediction criteria, (vi) translating information, (vii) tailoring information, and (viii) improving predictability as an affordance that results from an outcome or organisational change influenced by one or more of the other affordances.
- ItemOpen AccessBuilding and breaking identities: How adversity shapes entrepreneurial motivation(2023) Maharaj, Ishara; Hamann, RalphEntrepreneurship research has begun to recognise the role of people's lived experiences and significant life events prior to their venturing. Still, little is known about how adverse events shape founder identities and entrepreneurial motivation. My study uses an identity theoretical lens to consider the influence of founders' adverse life experiences on their venturing efforts. I asked the research question: How do adverse life events shape entrepreneurs' identity construction efforts and their venturing motives? Using a qualitative, grounded theory approach and life course methodology, I collected and analysed in-depth life story data of nine founders over the course of three years. These founders came into venturing under exceptionally adverse conditions in an informal economy context in Cape Town, South Africa. I found that adverse life experiences prior to venturing intentions or activities led to disconfirmed identities. The interplay between these disconfirmed identities and salient social identities played an integral role in founders' self-esteem and identity construction strategies in their efforts to restore a sense of coherence in their lives. These identity dynamics gave rise to distinct pathways resulting in different motives for establishing their ventures. My study enriches the literature on founder identity by detailing the significance of multiple forms of adversity on founders' identity construction and behavioural responses. By illuminating the relationship between the sources of adversity and salient social identities, I demonstrate the far-reaching consequences of adverse life events prior to venturing on founders' identities and entrepreneurial motives. It challenges the widely-held notion that founders in contexts of poverty are a homogenous group of entrepreneurs motivated by their basic needs. My study offers novel insights into the lived experiences of township entrepreneurs and contributes to scholarly knowledge on entrepreneurial adversity, identity and motivation in an under-researched context of poverty.
- ItemOpen AccessCommon critical academic success factors of postgraduate accounting students(2004) Heath, R C; Minter, TessaRecent research by the Human Sciences Research Council has indicated that there is a large need for skills in the Financial and Accounting Services (FAS), governmental and private sectors of the South African economy. Local and international events have led the call for greater ethical behaviour and accountability from financial professionals. South African Chartered Accountants are equipped with the necessary skills and education to fulfil these demands, and thus should be a major contributor to this demand. The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA) has a member profile that is not in line with the current demographics of the country. Females and non-whites are the two groups that have very poor representation within the SAICA membership. There are current initiatives that are attemrting to redress these imbalances. A degree or equivalent in Accounting is the first requirement on the path to qualification for South African Chartered Accountants. Thus, tertiary institutions in South Africa are a very important part of the process to produce more qualified financial personnel. Tertiary institutions also need to be aware of the challenges that the FAS sector and SAIC A face. The University of Cape Town (UCT) is a significant contributor of academically qualified financial personnel for admission to SAICA's training programme for potential Chartered Accountants. In light of the restructuring of government grants to tertiary institutions and the personnel needs of public and private sectors, UCT needs to be aware of how to maximise its throughput of students. This implies admitting students with identified potential. Identifying successful student characteristics of academic performance will assist the university in setting admissions policies. This will thus increase graduation rates and the throughput of qualified personnel, and decrease the current high rate of student attrition and its related cost. The Post-Graduate Diploma in Accounting is the only post-graduate programme at the University of Cape Town that is recognised by SAICA for direct eligibility To write Part 1 of the Qualifying Examination.
- ItemOpen AccessDemographic analysis of Reward preference in the Social Security Commisssion(2024) Elago, Else; Bagraim, JeffreyWorkplace demographics and a shortage of skills have obligated organisations to recognize rewards influence the retention of skilled employees, as homogenous retention policies are no longer suitable (Pregnolato, 2010). The goal of this study is to generate an understanding of the total rewards that the employees of the Social Security Commission (referred to hereunder as SSC) deem important for their retention and motivation or employee engagement, as well as to find the ideal mix and the preferred value of rewards that preserve employees from numerous demographic groups, in the context of the SSC – referring specially race, gender, age groups and education levels. In order to endure the battle for talent, it is essential to recognize the rewards that employees prefer employees. This is particularly appropriate in Namibia where the demographics of the workplace is evolving and distinguished retention schemes are desirable to retain employees from various groups (Pregnolato, 2010). A quantitative research design using a descriptive approach was adopted. Convenience sampling was utilised for the online survey whereby it was distributed to all employees of the SSC. The study revealed that SSC workforce is composed of majority of females of Generation Y and black people, with a diploma occupying non-managerial positions, with 1-11 years of experience in SSC. Overall, within the six reward categories, regardless of demographics, the most preferred remuneration options are leadership management development programmes, promotions in present business unit, base salary directed at the higher end of the market and retention bonus, employer that pays 100% to total retirement fund of employees including the maximum medical aid coverage, short-term incentives connected to their performance including shares or stock options (Pregnolato, 2010). Gaining knowledge in this regard will direct the SSC in drafting and amending well-informed and science-based reward strategies and policies. No account of literature exists which classifies the preferred reward combination and the number of rewards that retain employees (Pregnolato, 2010). The current study identified the ideal mix of total rewards that retain skilled workers as well as employees from diverse age groups, gender and race. Keywords: benefits, motivation, recognition, remuneration, retention, rewards.
- ItemOpen AccessDeterminants and macro-volatility impact of international capital flows in selected sub-saharan African countries(2012) Brafu-Insaidoo, William G; Biekpe, NicholasInternational capital flows have been an important subject of discussion in the finance and development literature as well as among policymakers. Discussion on international capital flows is inspired by the associated potential benefits which, in turn, have motivated a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions to liberalise cross-border capital flows and to encourage greater inflows of foreign capital in recent times. The result of these efforts has been the recent surge in capital flows and changes in its composition towards more short-term flows...In this thesis the major determinants of the volume and maturity of foreign capital flows in selected sub-Saharan African countries are investigated. The impact of the volume and type of international capital flows on the volatility of investment, output and consumption growth in the selected countries are also examined. The studies involved dynamic panel and time series regression analyses of data obtained from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The results of the research work are presented as six stand-alone essays.
- ItemOpen AccessDeterminants of FDI flows to Sub- Saharan Africa: Does economic development play a role?(2023) Chakufyali, Mukosa; Makanza, ChristineThere is a disparity in the trends of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) across nations at different stages of economic development, thereby indicating that economic development could play a role in attracting FDI to the region. This study assesses whether economic development plays a key role in attracting FDI to SSA, and examines whether the determinants of FDI differs across nations at different stages of economic development. The study constructs a panel dataset consisting of twenty-seven Sub-Saharan African (SSA(n)) nations, separated into higher and lower income nations, for the period 2000- 2019. Both static and dynamic panel regression analysis is conducted, where the dynamic model is estimated using a system of Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) procedure, whereas static panel analysis is conducted using fixed effects and random effects models. A dummy variable is included to represent economic development. The dummy was created by assessing each nations country classification by income level, according to the World Bank, in each year included in the analysis. The study opted against taking a nations classification at the end-point of the analysis, as end-point classification is likely to lead to a misclassification of nations that have transitioned from lower to higher income nations throughout the period under investigation. The full sample regression results found the dummy variable to be strongly significant, thereby supporting the claim that economic development does play a role in attracting FDI to SSA. Additional factors identified to be key drivers of FDI to SSA include inflation, FDI flows in the previous period, and trade openness. A comparison of the determinants of FDI across lower and higher income SSA(n) nations indicates that the determinants of FDI differs across nations at different stages of economic development. The factors that attract FDI to higher income SSA(n) nations are inflation, and government effectiveness, whereas the factors that attract FDI to lower income SSA(n) nations are lagged FDI flows, inflation, and trade openness. Keywords: Determinants of FDI, Panel data analysis, Sub- Saharan Africa. JEL classifications: O11,O4, O43, O57,C33.
- ItemOpen AccessThe development and institutionalisation of an integrated health care waste information system(2012) Delcarme, Brian; Roode, JD; Brown, IrwinWaste management generally in South Africa is poorly defined and practised, and the inadequate management of health care waste (HCW) has been recognised by the South African government as a significant environmental and public health risk. The literature revealed that an integrated health care waste information system (IHCWIS) serves as an important intervention to address the issue of poor health care waste management (HCWM). The overall key research question which this research asked was: "How does an IHCWIS develop and become institutionalised among health care waste generators?" The aim of the research was to gather empirical data to understand how the development and institutionalisation of an IHCWIS contributes to effective HCWM.
- ItemOpen AccessDividend yields, business conditions, and expected security returns : a South African perspective(2003) Kennedy-Good, Jonathan; Wormald, Michael; Roeleveld, JenniferThe analysis of this topic has continued to draw attention from academics such as Jensen Johnson and Mercer (1996), Patelis (1997) and Booth and Booth (2001) who examine the results of Fama et al. (1988) under differing monetary policy regimes. Jensen et al. (1996) posit that monetary stringency affects investors' required rate of return, which is consistent with Fama et al.'s (1989) arguments that predictable variation in returns reflects rational variation in required returns. Patelis (1997) finds that monetary variables used in his analysis are marginally significant predictors of security returns across different time horizons, while Booth et al. (2001) find that measures of the stance of monetary policy contain significant explanatory information that may be used to forecast expected stock and bond returns.
- ItemOpen AccessEstimating the financial implications of pressure ulcers in private hospitals in South Africa(2019) Carvounes, Angeliki; Ranchod, Shivani; Kantor, GarethQuality of care is a concept used to assess the value of healthcare services. Measures of quality of care are important in South Africa given the lack of information on the quality of services delivered in the healthcare sector. Pressure ulcers are an example of an adverse outcome of a hospital case and indicate poor quality of care. The financial implications of this event therefore represent an estimate of the cost of poor quality of care. The objective of this research is to estimate the financial implications of pressure ulcers in private hospitals in South Africa on a risk-adjusted basis. Pressure ulcers are identified using administrative data from medical schemes. Statistical modelling and statistical tests are used to create risk cells so that comparisons are done on a like-for-like basis. The results indicate that the average financial implications for a hospital case where an individual is diagnosed with a pressure ulcer, on a risk-adjusted and weighted basis, is 3.3 times the average financial implications for a hospital case where an individual is not diagnosed with a pressure ulcer. The impact of this event on the medical scheme industry is estimated at R1.4 billion. Identifying hospital cases where an individual is diagnosed with a pressure ulcer is limited because the data are used for reimbursement and case management. The financial implications could have been affected by additional factors not available in the data. Pressure ulcers result in non-financial implications for the individuals receiving and delivering healthcare services. These are not quantified in this research. Pressure ulcers are only one measure amongst many metrics that can be used to assess quality of care. Private hospitals can use a measure of pressure ulcers to quantify the quality of their healthcare services. Managed care organisations can therefore use these results to create a network of hospitals and they can use these results when negotiating with hospitals on the amount that they will reimburse them for the services that they provide.
- ItemOpen AccessFactors Affecting Automation of Cyber Forensics Investigation(2023) Hayes, Dean; Kyobe, MichaelOver the past three decades, technology has evolved in a global context changing human interaction through digitization. While there are positive attributes to technological advancement, there are considerable negative elements as well. Cybercrime and digital crime have risen drastically propelling sophisticated digital forensic technology, aimed at fighting cybercrime. However, with automation in digitized Fourth Industrial Revolution, it leaves room to consider the challenges of this on cyber forensic specialists. The purpose of this study was two folded. Firstly, it aimed to identify factors that affect the automation in the cyber forensics investigation. Secondly, it aimed to determine the most important factors in affecting the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. The research aimed to shed perspective on automation within the lens of cyber forensics, to provide new insights and efficiency regarding cyber forensics processes. It used a positivism research philosophy and quantitative research design. Eleven factors that affect the automation of cyber forensics investigation were identified from literature. Furthermore, eleven hypotheses were generated and were tested using a correlation matrix. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was also used to determine the most important factors that affect the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. In view of this, the R2 and R2 change were used to determine to what extent the factors influenced the variance in the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. In this regard, accessibility to data and dependency on Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) were indicated to be the most important factors that had a significant impact on the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. It was revealed that accessibility to data influence 37.8% of the variation found in the automation of cyber forensics investigation whilst dependency on CSPs was found to influence 17.5% of the variation found in the automation of cyber forensics investigation. On the other hand, the rest of the nine factors each had a combined influence of 1.7% on the variation found in the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. In light of this, accessibility to data and dependency on CSPs were found to be the most important factors that positively affected the automation of cyber forensics investigation performance. v
- ItemOpen AccessA formative and outcome evaluation for a substance abuse treatment programme(2011) Gumpo, Hlalani; Ward, CatherineSubstance abuse is a social problem that has contributed to a burden on the justice system. In South Africa, this problem has been found to be prevalent in Cape Town, the capital of the Western Cape. Methamphetamine, alcohol, cannabis, heroin and cocaine are the most commonly used drugs for which people have sought treatment. These substances are associated with violent behaviour and mental health behaviours which then result in criminal activities. Treatment however is not easily accessible for some socio-economic groups as it is expensive and geographically inaccessible. Alternate methods of treatment in the form of community interventions have been implemented in response to the need for treatment in these disadvantaged communities. This report is an evaluation of one such intervention based in Hanover Park, Cape Town.
- ItemOpen AccessGaussian Process Regression for a Single Underlying Autocallable Security(2023) Herbert, Rebecca; Ouwehand, PeterTraditionally in Quantitative Finance, in order to price exotic options, particu- larly with path dependency, time consuming Monte Carlo simulations are done. This dissertation considers the use of the machine learning technique Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) as a faster pricing alternative to Monte Carlo simula- tions. The speed of calculation is of interest since prices are linked to fast moving market variables. We focus on the pricing of a single underlying autocallable under GPR against its traditional pricing under the Stochastic Local Volatility (SLV) model. An autocallable is a structured product which allows for early redemption when the underlying meets certain barrier conditions. Due to its path dependency, autocallables are typically priced using Monte Carlo simula- tions under an SLV model which captures realistic market dynamics by allowing volatility to be modelled as stochastic rather than assumed constant, but also allows for more precise calibration by including a local volatility component. We find that a desired level of accuracy is achieved only for autocallable prices under the Schobel-Zhu SLV model, with computation speeds slightly slowler than Monte Carlo simulations.
- ItemOpen AccessIdentifying and correcting misclassified South African equity trusts using style analysis(1999) Robertson, M; Firer, Colin; Bradfield, DaveThe concept of style analysis is rapidly spreading in the money management business. In addition to it's use in the areas of benchmarking, portfolio structuring, risk control and performance attribution, style analysis has also been shown to be a powerful tool for identifying and evaluating the groupings and classification of investment portfolios. This study is based on an iterative application of William Sharpe's technique of returns-based style analysis. In essence the technique is used to create purified unit trust style indices in order to verify the existing classification of equity unit trusts. The technique is extended for the purpose of confirming the returns-based misclassified funds through testing the fit of combinations of style factor returns derived from a composition-based factor model.