Browsing by Author "Soko, Mills"

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    Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions
    (2013) Gordon, Adam Victor; Soko, Mills
    Scenario planning has steadily grown to become a significant part of business and organisational foresight processes, particularly where planning situations demand approaches beyond traditional forecasting, due to extent of uncertainty variables or length of future time under consideration. However, despite general consensus as to the importance of the scenario approach in general, and rapid growth in both theory and practice in the field, fundamental questions remain over which situations are most tractable to scenario planning and why; and, in the face of uneven success in application, which among an apparent myriad scenario planning approaches best serves different planning situations, or organisations holding different goals. This dissertation makes an intervention into this problem, investigating to what extent scenario planning projects can be separated by underlying project purpose, and, based on original primary case studies and case-based structured interviews, finds that two meta-categories of purpose exist, which are here referred to as 'adaptive' and 'visionary-advocacy' purposes. It is argued that a purpose-based distinction of scenario modes provides part-explanation of the effective basis, or absence thereof, of scenario work for different situations - a basis which is achieved via congruence of scenario project purpose with (a) underlying organisational planning purpose, and (b) the extent of organisational influence over external conditions, including macro-variables of change, that constrain it. These findings suggest additions to scenario method as currently understood, particularly pre-project analysis (audits) of both an organisation's planning purpose and its external constraint conditions, to ascertain the presence of absence of necessary congruencies, so as to inform adoption of the purpose platform (and allied methodology) more likely to produce successful outcomes in application.
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    Contemporary insights into the dynamics of foreign direct investment in Zambia
    (2016) Ngubo, Nompumelelo; Soko, Mills
    Foreign direct investment ("FDI") has been acclaimed by authors and policy makers alike to be one of the pivotal interventions that African countries need in order to support the capital investment required to sustain economic growth, alleviate poverty, and achieve the Millennium Development Goals in the region. This research report aims to explain the evolution of the modern Zambian FDI environment and describe the dynamics at play in this thriving, yet poverty-stricken economy. Over the last 25 years, Zambia has made remarkable progress in transforming its investment climate in order to successfully attract of increased inflows of FDI over time. The primary interventions that brought about these changes in the country's investment climate involved privatization and liberalization policies of the 1990s, institutional reforms of the early 2000s, and the more recent establishment of the Zambian Development Agency for the facilitation of all local and foreign investment. As a result, the international community responded with growing interest in the Zambian economy. Despite having surpassed other African countries in attracting increasing levels of FDI, Zambia does not fully portray the perceived benefits of an economy experiencing an upswing in investment inflows i.e. – reduced unemployment, increased income, infrastructure upgrades, skills and knowledge transfer etc. The economy is still heavily dependent on one sector – copper mining, yet there remains a wealth of untapped natural resources which hold potential to improve Zambia's social and economic status – fresh water, arable land and gemstones. Key challenges in the country range across the spectrum from inadequate infrastructure to labour market challenges as well as the consequence of rising foreign firm entry – crowding out of local investment. The report suggests key policy interventions to be considered should be aimed at infrastructural service delivery improvement through privatization, leveling of the playing field for local and international firms to improve domestic market competitiveness and a focus on skills and knowledge transfer obligations of foreign firms.
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    Migrant remittances and socio-economic status of recipient households in the DRC: Case of Congolese migrants in the Western Cape in South Africa
    (2018) Nzonde, Patient; Soko, Mills
    More than two decades of internal fighting and political unrest have seen millions of Congolese people leave their home country in search of a better future for themselves and their families in other parts of the world. This migratory movement exposed most of them to the significance of remittances as a means to support the loved ones left behind. Remittances from abroad play a key role in enhancing the standard of living of households in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The study therefore analyzed remitting behaviours of migrants based in the Western Cape province of South Africa and the impact of their remittances on recipients’ livelihood in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study made use of primary and secondary data collected from various sources, then applied qualitative methods for analyzing both the remittance senders’ behaviour and the impact on recipient households. After a critical analysis, the study found that remittances increase the income of recipients, help alleviate poverty, improve recipients’ ability to access basic services such as health and education, and contribute to employment creation by providing capital for microenterprises and community based projects. The study also found that migrants based in the Western Cape would rather use informal channels instead of formal channels due to high costs and compliance requirements. One contribution of this study is the finding that current policies in relation with the remittance industry in South Africa and in Congo can definitely be improved in order to increase remittances inflows both ways, and thus meaningfully impact both countries’ economies.
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    Promoting regional trade in the SADC region: identifying opportunities for manufactured exports from South Africa to Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe
    (2016) Moodliar, Loshini; Soko, Mills
    The purpose of this study is to, firstly, identify opportunities for manufactured exports from South Africa to its five largest trading partners in the SADC region, namely Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Secondly, the study investigates the challenges facing South African firms in exporting to the SADC markets and the strategies that can be pursued to overcome these challenges. The study uses a mixed-methods approach where secondary quantitative data was analysed to identify manufactured products with high potential for export to the selected SADC countries. Semi-structured interviews were used to answer the secondary research questions related to identifying export challenges facing South Africa, and strategies to overcome these challenges. It was found that the products with the highest potential for export to the five countries are mainly found in heavy duty vehicles, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, structural and building materials, construction machinery and equipment, and petroleum oils and other petroleum products. The main challenges, as well as strategies to overcome these challenges, were grouped into seven themes as follows: Facilitation of Trade; Understanding the SADC Market; South Africa's relationship with the Rest of Africa; Non-tariff Barriers; Regional Integration; South African competitiveness; and Competition. The recommendations of the study include South Africa developing a more tailored approach to doing business with the SADC countries in terms of product and service offerings as well as trade promotion activities. Furthermore the development of a market intelligence database, training programmes, a cohesive marketing strategy for the country's capabilities and a regional value chain approach are recommended. It is hoped that the findings of the study will contribute towards informing the development of a targeted regional export strategy for South Africa.
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    Thrown in at the deep end: South Africa and the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations 1986-1994
    (2010) Soko, Mills
    South Africa's readmission into the multilateral trade system in the early 1990s was one of the key events that marked the end of decades of international ostracism brought about by the country's apartheid policies. By participating in the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations and acceding to the Marrakesh Agreement of the GATT/WTO in 1994, South Africa agreed to liberalise its trade policies in line with the rules-based global trade regime after decades of estrangement from the GATT operations and disciplines. Although South Africa had taken part in all the previous rounds of multilateral trade liberalisation, years of international isolation prevented the country from benefiting from the considerable liberalisation attained in the successive preUruguay Round negotiations. Even so, it appears that the Uruguay Round had a significant political and economic impact on South Africa. The normalisation of South Africa's trade relations and the reinstatement of its trade prerogatives within the WTO elicited a favourable disposition towards the country. Trade reforms implemented in line with Uruguay Round commitments laid the foundation for major changes in the South African economy. South Africa, however, still has a long way to go before it can achieve its long-term goal of becoming a globally competitive, outward-oriented manufacturing and services economy.