Browsing by Author "Simpson, Nicholas"

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    Exploring the adoption rationales and effects of off-grid renewable energy access for African youth: a case study from Tanzania
    (University of Cape Town, 2020) Rabenold, Colton; Sowman, Merle; Simpson, Nicholas
    In addition to being one of the poorest countries in Africa, Tanzania is considered the 13th most vulnerable nation in the world to climate change and climate variability. Currently over 63% of Tanzanians have no access to the national power grid. Instead they rely on biomass and kerosene lamps to provide energy in their homes. In addition, rural youth in Tanzania have limited occupational pursuits other than subsistence farming (both formal and informal). Utilizing a case study approach, this research qualitatively explores the effects of energy access in the form of solar PV for those seeking to secure this public good at a household-level. Face-to-face interviews conducted in the coastal region of Tanzania concentrated on understanding rationales for adopting off-grid energy (adoption rationales), particularly respondent's 'Awareness', 'Motivation' and selected 'Pathways' (the AMP Framework). High rates of rural poverty highlight systemic lack of energy access in Tanzania. In contrast, livelihood transformations through solar PV were observed in the case to couple with energy access. Indicators of improvement in living standards were observed to have cascading influence on other adopters which, in turn, encouraged further uptake. This innovative adoption lead to decreased pressure on the surrounding ecosystems, but environmental factors did not influence initial adoption rationales. Reflecting on the findings, the author develops a framework for better understanding of the role private actors take in transitions from to off-grid energy access in Africa. Reflecting on the case observations, particularly how respondents sought shape the flow of events independent, and sometimes in spite of, the State, the framework extends current understandings of nodes of change in rural communities and provides a more extensive exploration of behavioural theories (the AMP Framework and Diffusion Theory). Novel connections are made conceptually with emerging nodes of change and decision-making theories of change to provide fresh extension of these approaches to understanding poverty arrangements in Africa and what researchers and decision makers might need to consider for targeted interventions towards universal energy access on the continent. The thesis concludes with a range of principles for energy access in Africa distilled from the observations and framework developed. They include environmental principles of sustainable resource management and socioecological balance, social principles of equality and participation, and economic principles of access and stability.
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    Technical Analysis to Support the Adaptation Component of South Africa’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution
    (University of Cape Town, 2025) Taylor, Anna; Simpson, Nicholas; Sibanda, Darlington; Bhanye, Johannes; Trisos, Christopher; Moyo, Vuyisile; Matiza, Collins; Ouweneel, Birgitt; Cartwright, Anton; Blignaut, James
    Research teams in the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) and the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at the University of Cape Town carried out analyses pertaining to climate change adaptation and mitigation as technical support to government in developing South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2) under the Paris Agreement. This technical report presents the adaptation component of the work, reviewing key climate change risks and adaptation efforts to date, proposing seven priority adaptation goals, and estimating the costs and benefits of 36 identified adaptation options that, if implemented well, would make a significant contribution to realising the goals. The seven proposed adaptation goals are: (1) Adapt South Africa’s water and sanitation systems to drying conditions and drought and flood intensification, as water underpins human, plant and animal health and all economic and livelihood activities; (2) Enhance disaster risk management, healthcare and sanitation provision, especially in informal settlements, to reduce impacts of flooding and heat stress on most vulnerable households; (3) Upgrade critical transport infrastructure (roads, rail, ports) to maintain functioning under increased rainfall intensity, heat stress, wind speeds and storm surges; (4) Enhance nutritious food access and affffordability through support to agricultural and fifisheries producers and distributors in adapting to warmer and windier conditions and changes in rainfall; (5) Enhance climate services, with early warning and impact information made accessible to a wide range of users, tailored to different operational, language, gender, age and disability needs; (6) Enhance ecosystem-based adaptation to heat and water stress, protecting South Africa’s natural heritage, biodiversity and improving ecosystem functioning that underpins our cultural identity, food systems, human wellbeing and tourism economy; and (7) Capacitate all spheres of government to implement adaptation through enacting and enforcing all provisions of the Climate Change Act. There is a companion technical report presenting the mitigation component of the work.
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    The role of indigenous and local knowledge on climate adaptation for smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe
    (2024) Zvobgo, Luckson; Johnston, Peter; Trisos, Christopher; Simpson, Nicholas
    Increasing smallholder farmers' resilience to the impacts of climate change requires informed decision-making that utilises locally validated information sources, including Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK). Smallholder farmers across multiple regions of the world rely on IK and LK forecasts for climate decision making. This knowledge provides a rich foundation for locally led adaptation by smallholder farmers because of its contextual embeddedness within microclimatic conditions. Recent peer-reviewed literature on IK and LK in Africa was analysed to assess the role of IK and LK in adaptation in the water sector, showing that adaptation responses with IK and LK had higher evidence of risk reduction, but only 10% of African governments included IK and LK in adaptation planning in their intended Nationally Determined Contributions. A cross-sectional survey was used to establish the role of IK and LK in adaptation for smallholder farmers in the Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe. Data were collected from 210 smallholder farmers between 2021-2022, through face-to-face interviews. The analysis of observed climate data for Chiredzi between 1972-2022 corroborated the survey data. A framework was developed and applied to assess smallholder farmers' vulnerability in relation to their use of IK and LK. The results demonstrate that IK and LK are important in reducing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers by increasing the implementation of crop adaptation responses. These include the use of indigenous, drought-resistant seed crop varieties and using IK and LK weather and seasonal climate forecasts for informed decision making on appropriate crop varieties and timing of planting to reduce crop exposure to climate risk. Farmers using IK and LK forecasts implemented adaptation responses three times more than those relying on other sources of climate forecasts. Twenty-three decision types from the IK and LK forecasts that contributed to on-farm adaptation responses were identified, including crop variety selection (e.g., drought-resistant crops), cropping area management (e.g., water conservation measures), and agricultural calendar planning and management (e.g., zero tillage, dry planting, or irrigation). A further framework was developed and applied to assess the effectiveness of IK- and LK informed adaptation responses. IK and LK adaptation responses showed limited, positive, and promising signs of effectiveness. Eight (44%) of the 18 responses showed high and medium evidence of effectiveness in reducing climate risk by reducing exposure and vulnerability components of climate risk. The IK and LK seasonal forecasts were most reliable for near- term forecasts. These findings led to the development of a conceptual framework that facilitates the inclusion of IK and LK in planned adaptation. This study broadens the understanding of how IK and LK contribute to the adaptation cycle of the global goal on adaptation of the 2015 Paris Agreement, demonstrating the value of IK and LK to the global climate agenda. The findings of this study are important for interventions that target increasing effectiveness of adaptation responses, thereby reducing smallholder farmers' vulnerability and exposure to climate change. Greater recognition of and attention to IK and LK is needed across national climate adaptation planning in Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans for its potential to be realised