Browsing by Author "Petrie, J G"

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    Electricity supply industry modeling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty
    (Elsevier, 2007) Heinrich, G; Howells, M I; Basson, L; Petrie, J G
    Appropriate energy–environment–economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty.
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    Modelling and Assessment of the Long-term Leachate Generation Potential in Deposits of Ferro-chromium Slags
    (The Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 2000) Petersen, J; Petrie, J G
    The environmental impact of solid waste materials is closely linked to their potential to produce a hazardous leachate once deposited in a landfill. This potential is conventionally assessed with simple laboratory batch leach tests, which find more and more frequent application also in the minerals and metals industry. Such tests are intended to help distinguish between high and low risk wastes, but are completely unsuitable to allow quantitative prediction or modelling of the long-term leachate generation potential. In the present approach the leachate generation process is perceived as a combination of bulk convective transport, stagnant zone and inner particle diffusion, as well as reaction kinetic effects. Model equations are formulated accordingly. A modelling framework, WASTESIM, has been developed at UCT, which allows flexible combination of the model components and simulation of leach scenarios. Quantitative model parameters are obtained from a systematic laboratory study on the waste material in question. The combined assessment and modelling approach is demonstrated with a study on Cr(VI) leaching from a ferro-chromium slag material. Although not straightforward, the approach is particularly useful in determining long-term liabilities in the context of waste disposal sites with considerably more reliability than has previously been possible. Keywords: waste deposits, waste leaching, heap leaching, environmental, risk assessment, Cr(VI), ferro-chromium, slag.