Browsing by Author "Nxele, Musawenkosi"

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    A comparative analysis of South Africa's minerals-energy complex before 2011 and the current pursuit of a renewable just energy transition post-2011 to 2023
    (2025) Khumalo, Sbusiso; Nxele, Musawenkosi
    This research traces South Africa's energy transition. It examines to what extent South Africa is on a just transition trajectory by comparing the minerals-energy complex and the current transition to renewable energy. It conducts this review of just transition through the lens of “equity” and suggests that “just transition” concerns equity or equitable distribution. It examines if South Africa is on a just transition by researching four dimensions of equity. The dimensions include (a) energy security, (b) the inclusivity of job creation, (c) redress for historical injustices experienced by vulnerable communities, and (d) broad-based empowerment initiatives. This is measured and deduced from the empirical review of the extent to which South Africa's energy sector has undergone or is undergoing a just transition. By systematically evaluating these dimensions, the research found that energy security can only be met if fairly distributed to all, avoiding the repetition of the minerals-energy complex structure which was biased against black people. The current renewable energy transition must ensure that the distribution of energy does not prioritise industrial companies but also supplies low-income households with affordable energy. South Africa's energy sector will need to diverge from the minerals-energy complex's narrow or enclave distributional structure. The sector will only be on a just transition if community protection and broad-based initiatives are mandatory targets to be met by private renewable companies (specifically Independent Power Producers). Lastly, stakeholder alignment is important for a successful just transition embedded in energy policies.
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    Open Access
    Does mining alleviate or exacerbate poverty: Are local community grievances really 'Much Ado about Nothing'?
    (2017) Nxele, Musawenkosi; Morris, Michael
    This study sets out to evaluate the impact of industrial mining on local economies, within a context of a developing country with a strict procurement policy on its extractive industry. It contributes empirical evidence on two main ideas on the impact of mining on local communities. The one idea is that mining has a positive impact on local communities because it creates economic activity through economic linkages with local markets; and thus contributes to local industrialisation, economic development, and poverty reduction. The other idea is that mining harms local economies through negative impacts on the environment; which hurts local agriculture and health, leading to an increase in local poverty. By evaluating a case study of a poor rural economy driven by mining and agriculture, this study measures the net average impact of the opening and expansion of mining on local income poverty. Using ward level data combined with firm data, the study essentially uses a difference-in-differences estimation procedure, by exploiting a local input demand shock from large industrial mines, as well as changes in distance to a mine, as sources of variation. The study finds that the opening of a mine is associated with poverty reduction in surrounding communities, while the impact from an expansion of a mine depends on the type of commodity mined. Unpacking these results by commodity gives insight into the concentration of labour and community unrest in the platinum and gold mining sectors in South Africa. The findings of this study remain robust to different indicators of mine expansion, and checks for alternative explanations such as selective migration and sample checks. The study uses the Limpopo Province of South Africa as a suitable case study.
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    Open Access
    Marange diamonds autopsy: investigating the Anjin deal between Chinese capital and the political military elite of Zimbabwe, plus the distribution of rents
    (2025) Dube, Tadiwanashe; Nxele, Musawenkosi
    The study investigates the nature of deals between Chinese capital and the political-military elite in Zimbabwe, specifically exploring whether these interactions produce developmental outcomes or if they lean towards predatory practices. Using a case study of the Marange diamond fields, the Analytic Narratives and Process Tracing research methodology is applied to track the Anjin Limited deal in Marange from its inception till date. What is the nature of the deal involving Chinese diamond mining capital and the political-military elite in Zimbabwe, and how are the rents distributed? This paper argues that the Anjin deal is a high barrier arrangement that limits rents from flowing to local communities and national development. Access to this deal is only available to those with political connections and the political-military elite of Zimbabwe. The evidence supporting this argument is derived from the conspicuous absence of standard tender processes in the selection of Anjin. Further, it can be observed that due diligence processes are circumvented in favour of political connections and relationship with Zimbabwe's securocrats. Anjin's corporate strategy is seen to be extraction driven due to predatory engagement with political leadership. Consequently, the deal can be characterised as collusive and rent seeking, contributing very little to transformation, and the realisation of Zimbabwe's Vision 2030.