Browsing by Author "Höhne, Niklas"

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    Differentiation of countries' future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the
    (Elsevier, 2007) Den Elzen, Michel G J; Höhne, Niklas; Brouns, Bernd; Winkler, Harald; Ott, Herrmann E
    The "South - North Dialogue" Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries' emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The "political willingness scenario" will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.
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    Quantifying SD-PAMs: National energy models and international allocation models for climate change mitigation: South African case study. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town.
    (2008) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Manley, Jonathan; Davis, Stephen; Trikam, Ajay; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Witi, Jongikhaya
    Sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) are an approach to stimulating action on climate change mitigation in developing countries. Instead of starting from explicit climate targets, the approach deliberately sets out to start from development objectives. This strategic approach taps into the primary motivation for developing countries, namely development. Defining more sustainable pathways to meet given development objectives has significant climate co-benefits. These co-benefits are by now broadly accepted (IPCC 2007, 2001b; Robinson et al. 2006; Winkler et al. 2006; Szklo et al. 2005; Munasinghe & Swart 2005; Baumert & Winkler 2005; Bradley et al. 2005; IISD 2005), the question is how to capture these benefits in the multi-lateral climate regime. A new strategic approach is needed, and SD-PAMs offers one possible approach. This approach provides a means to identify ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner’ (UNFCCC 2007). Sustainable development is part of core balance between sub-paragraphs 1b(i) and 1b(ii), in that mitigation actions by developing countries are qualified as being ‘in the context of sustainable development’.
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    The role of sector no-lose targets in scaling up finance for climate change mitigation activities in developing countries
    (DEFRA, United Kingdom, 2008) Ward, Murray; Streck, Charlotte; Winkler, Harald; Jung, Martina; Hagemann, Markus; Höhne, Niklas; O'Sullivan, Robert
    The international climate change community is urgently looking for means to ‘scale up’ investments in clean technology and systems worldwide, especially in developing countries. The need for this to happen is signalled by the recent fourth assessment of the IPCC, in particular by Working Group III which noted: With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades: CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2030 from energy use are projected to grow 45 to 110% over that period. Two thirds to three quarters of this increase in CO2 emissions is projected to come from nonAnnex I regions, with their average per capita energy CO2 emissions being projected to remain substantially lower than those in Annex I regions in 2030. Currently, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only contribution by developing countries that is formally acknowledged under the international climate change regime. The need for something more than the current CDM is well documented, in particular something that addresses the scale issue by going beyond a project by project approach.