Browsing by Author "Boaden, B"

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    The business cycle, demand for construction and appropriate selling methods for contractors
    (1991) Hindle, Robert Dennis; Butt, P; Boaden, B
    This dissertation is a record of research into two distinct areas that are brought together to test the primary hypothesis. These two areas are; the general business cycle and its effects of the performance of construction companies and the methods by which general contractors in the building industry, are able to market and sell their services or products. In part one, it is shown that there is a relationship between the business cycle and the demand for construction. The latter expands and contracts in sympathy with the cycle. The effects of the changes in the level of demand for buildings are analyzed and fully described, resulting in a model· which can be used to determine the sequence of effects for each phase of the business cycles. In part two, the methods by which contractors are selected and sell their service or product are analyzed and compared. The usage of each system is measured and it is found that change has occurred, the reasons for such change are investigated in order to gain an insight into potential future developments. This has been done in a way that is intended to strip the subject of it's mystique and confusion of terminology by the application of basic economic and marketing principles. New and improved terminology is suggested. The findings show that construction contractors can choose from a variety of 'selling systems'. These systems will provide competitive advantage to those who are able to predict the likely turning points of the business cycle and use those 'selling systems' that are appropriate to specific stages of the business cycle. The research was conducted by finding, analyzing and interpreting various time series data, by surveying architects quantity surveyors and contractors for facts and figures that were not available elsewhere, and by conducting a through survey of published books, articles and research papers.
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    The development of leading indicators for the South African building industry using qualitative and quantitative data
    (1994) Snyman, Gideon Johan Justus; Kilian, W.F.; van der M. Smit, E.; Boaden, B
    The building industry is complex, diversified, and labour-intensive. These aspects, together with its inherent instability, are analysed. Improved forecasting methods can assist in economic planning within the industry and formulation of public policy. Economic stabilisation policies can benefit participants in the industry and society at large. In this study leading indicators are developed for the South African building industry to assist in forecasting future demand levels. Use is made of qualitative survey data and quantitative time series. The quarterly qualitative data emanate from the Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch. These data are gathered by questionnaire from building contractors and sub-contractors according to the Konjunkturtest developed by the lfo Institute, Munich, Germany. Principal component analyses of the business survey variables reveal that respondents behave purposefully and that these qualitative data are suitable for use as cyclical indicators in a composite index. The monthly quantitative data are compiled by the South African Reserve Bank and the Central Statistical Service, Pretoria, South Africa. The variables used in the construction of the leading indicators are weighted according to the scoring system developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, United States of America. The six criteria applied in this scoring system are: economic significance of the variables; statistical adequacy; timing at turning points; conformity to historical business cycles; currency; and smoothness. Separate composite leading indices are compiled from 33 qualitative variables and 8 quantitative time series, with the relevant scores as weights. It is found that these indices lead turnjng points of the reference cycle by between three and a half months and ten and a half months. However, the lead times are not consistent. This finding is in accordance with international experience. A combined leading indicator is constructed from these qualitative and quantitative indices (1971 to 1991). It is found that the statistical performance of the final composite leading indicator does not surpass the performance of the individual composite indices. It is suggested that the best forecasting results can be achieved if the qualitative and quantitative leading indices are · used independently, yet in conjunction with other economic indicators and other forecasting models.