Defining a sub-Saharan fertility pattern and a standard for use with the relational Gompertz model

Van Gijsen, Rienier

Defining a sub-Saharan fertility pattern and a standard for use with the relational Gompertz model

Master Thesis

2009

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE)

Faculty

Faculty of Commerce

Abstract

The relational Gompertz model is often used to obtain fertility estimates for sub-Saharan Africa populations. This indirect estimation technique is dependent on a fertility standard - the Booth standard. This standard was developed in 1979 using a selection of 33 Coale-Trussell schedules congruent with high fertility patterns. However, evidence from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys of sub-Saharan countries shows that fertility has decreased to levels that were considered medium fertility at the time the standard was developed. This raises concerns about the continued relevance of the (high fertility) Booth standard. In particular, the standard would appear to consistently underestimate fertility among African women aged 45-49.

Description

Includes abstract.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 122-124).

Keywords

Demography

Reference:

Collections

Masters

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