Figures 1 to 5 plot the projected 95, 90 and 80% probability envelopes as well as the projected medians under the revised Management Procedure adopted in 2017 for Greenland Halibut for a series of quantities (annual catch, recruitment, and the five survey indices of abundance together with the composite index which combines the five) for the following SCAA-based Operating Models:
- OM1 (the Baseline, using data including 2016 and the O3 set of surveys),
- OM2 (larger recruitment variability with R=0.6),
- OM4 (loRec – the recruitment of the first 8 years of the projections are at 50% of the level predicted by the stock-recruit function),
- OM7 (110TAC – future catches are taken as 110% of the TAC) and
- OM8 (noplus – zero selectivity for the plus group).
The probability envelopes have been computed from a 9-point averaging approach (see Appendix below) from 500 replicates. The 9-point approach was selected as it offered a reasonable trade-off between preserving trend and eliminating “jaggedness” from Monte Carlo variation.
Reference:
Rademeyer, R., Butterworth, D. 2018. Projections under the selected Management Procedure for Greenland Halibut.
Rademeyer, R., & Butterworth, D. (2018). Projections under the selected Management Procedure for Greenland Halibut ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30768
Rademeyer, Rebecca, and Doug Butterworth Projections under the selected Management Procedure for Greenland Halibut. ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30768
Rademeyer R, Butterworth D. Projections under the selected Management Procedure for Greenland Halibut. 2018 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30768