First set of robustness tests conducted for OMP2018

Abstract

Results are presented for a total of ten robustness tests. The first five robustness tests investigate alternative assumptions regarding future surveys and commercial catchability. Further robustness tests involve testing alternative mortality-at-age vectors and sensitivity to data arising from different species splitting algorithms. The final robustness tests explored in this document decrease past or future carrying capacity, simulating a situation where expected recruitment fails. For all robustness tests, simulations suggest that OMP2018 is able to provide adequate management advice for the situations simulated. For robustness tests simulating predictable situations (e.g. if it were known that surveys would be discontinued in the future), the OMP needs to be re-tuned to avoid adverse impacts on TACs and/or resource status. The Appendix reports the results of three additional robustness tests concerning future surveys requested by the Panel during the course of the workshop, none of which indicated that OMP2018 would not be able to provide adequate management advice.