A check of operating model predictions from the viewpoint of the management procedure implementation in 2017

Takahashi, Norio; Sakai, Osamu; Kurota, Hiroyuki; Itoh, Tomoyuki; Butterworth, Doug S

A check of operating model predictions from the viewpoint of the management procedure implementation in 2017

Working Paper

2017

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Values of the core vessels’ longline CPUE and aerial survey (AS) indices (two required inputs to the Bali management procedure) are compared to projection results obtained from the SBT operating model (OM). The most recent observations for the CPUE index and the AS index fall within the 95% probability envelopes predicted by the Base case OM in 2011. As regards a decision on implementation of the recommended TAC (calculated by the MP in 2016 for the 2018-2020 fishing seasons) for the 2018 season, it is considered that no modification of the value of this TAC is required because: 1) there is no evidence to support a declaration of Exceptional Circumstances from the viewpoints of a check of the OM predictions, this year’s in-depth stock assessment/projections, and other potential reasons (Indonesian small fish catch, overcatch of reported global TAC, unaccounted catch mortality); 2) no unexpected change has been detected in the fisheries’ indicators examined; and 3) there are no indications of any appreciable decline in recruitment indices for 2017.

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