Seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics and precursors of rainfall over northern Tanzania

 

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dc.contributor.advisor Jury, Mark R en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Kabanda, Tibangayuka Abbas en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned 2016-08-24T12:59:45Z
dc.date.available 2016-08-24T12:59:45Z
dc.date.issued 1995 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Kabanda, T. 1995. Seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics and precursors of rainfall over northern Tanzania. University of Cape Town. en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/21513
dc.description.abstract The structure and variability of inter-annual and intra-seasonal circulation anomalies and their precursors are investigated over northern Tanzania. Area rainfall departures are computed in the period 1960-1990 and wet and dry years are identified. Northern Tanzania experiences bimodal rains centred on the seasons: March to May (Masika) and October to December (Vuli). Station inter-correlations in Masika are of order +0.4, whereas in Vuli correlations are of order+0.7. Using composite sequences of gridded sea surface temperatures (SST),outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and winds in the lower- and upper troposphere, the- precursors of flood and drought are assessed. Composites are averaged for the specific season and for periods 2, 4 and 6 months prior; and the historical mean is subtracted to produce anomalies. In this way, evolution of extreme rainfall scenarios is tracked for predictive purposes. The patterns analysed show that when positive SST anomalies persist in the Indian Ocean, sympathetic negative OLR values and local rainfall enhancement are observed. Using pentad (5 day mean) rainfall time series for the area, wet spells are analysed for structure and evolution. ECMWF data for the peak in Vuli rainfall each year from 1986 to 1991 are averaged to form a single composite. The historical mean is subtracted from the composite to produce anomalies for the wet spell and the preceeding pentads. en_ZA
dc.language.iso eng en_ZA
dc.subject.other Oceanography en_ZA
dc.title Seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics and precursors of rainfall over northern Tanzania en_ZA
dc.type Thesis / Dissertation en_ZA
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Thesis en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Science en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Department of Oceanography en_ZA
dc.type.qualificationlevel Masters en_ZA
dc.type.qualificationname MSc en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image


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