Risk evaluation for the current South African west coast rock lobster, hake and pelagic OMPs

Abstract

The choice of OMP involved an appropriate selection of the trade-offs between the conflicting objectives of greater catches, less TAC variability and lower risks. The statistic B(13/03) was seen to evaluate biological risk. The industry were interested in assessing economic risk, and hence the use of the FE and Etrap and Ehoop statistics. The FE statistic was used as an indicator for future employment levels. In an economy were unemployment is a problem, options projecting a decrease in FE and hence employment were considered undesirable from a social/industrial perspective. Further, to limit instability to the industry as a result of large TAC changes, these were limited to maxima of 10% from one year to the next.