The approach recently developed by the IWC Scientific Committee for taking formal account of the results of robustness trials, together with their relative plausibilities, in assessing risk when selecting between alternative candidate management procedures

Butterworth, Doug S

The approach recently developed by the IWC Scientific Committee for taking formal account of the results of robustness trials, together with their relative plausibilities, in assessing risk when selecting between alternative candidate management procedures

Working Paper

2007

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

A particular raison d’etre for the management procedure (MP) approach for providing scientific recommendations on management measures such as TACs is that it takes formal account of scientific uncertainties in its assessment of risks (primarily to the resource, but also to the fishery). This is achieved by considering the results of simulation tests which project the resource forward under the MP’s TAC-setting algorithm, not only under a model seen to best reflect the resource’s dynamics, but also under other models consistent with alternative plausible explanations of the data available