On the range of implications of flexibility/constraining future inter-annual TAC variations on the risk of failing to recover the west coast rock lobster resource

Abstract

Inter alia for consistency with the Precautionary Principle, resource recovery plans have to take account not only of the target level of recovery desired, but also the risk of falling well below that target. The implications of this are illustrated by considering the example of the west coast rock lobster resource. For equivalent risk to the resource, higher levels of buffering against TAC variation necessitate lower TACs on average. The advantages of the OMP approach are evidenced by the some 33% larger TACs made possible through feedback control without increasing risk (for the example of OMP 2011 re-tuned), given pre-agreed rules for recommending TACs.